a Trump vs Clinton United States Presidential Election in 2016

Who do you vote into the office of USA President?


  • Total voters
    48

GasBandit

Staff member
I'm pretty sure party revolt is hitting inevitability at this point.
You're probably right. The only variable is how loud and ugly it will be. At the convention, if anyone other than Trump or Cruz is given the nomination, I wouldn't be surprised if punches start getting thrown on the floor of Quicken Loans Arena.
 
You're probably right. The only variable is how loud and ugly it will be. At the convention, if anyone other than Trump or Cruz is given the nomination, I wouldn't be surprised if punches start getting thrown on the floor of Quicken Loans Arena.
Only because they are banning guns. ;)
 
You're probably right. The only variable is how loud and ugly it will be. At the convention, if anyone other than Trump or Cruz is given the nomination, I wouldn't be surprised if punches start getting thrown on the floor of Quicken Loans Arena.
If Trump or Cruz win, you're going to see fights break out anyway. If Trump wins, the Establishment has failed it's core by letting a mad man potentially take office and letting him destroy the Republican brand in the process. If Cruz wins, the Anti-Establishment revolts, refuses to vote, and nigh guarantees a loss in November.
 

Dave

Staff member
By god you're right. The map I was looking at was totally fucked. Weird. Cruz has won 9.
 

GasBandit

Staff member
The republicans didn't get a say - the Secret Service said "No guns" and apparently they trump the constitution.
 
The republicans didn't get a say - the Secret Service said "No guns" and apparently they trump the constitution.
It hardly matters in such a situation. There are enough armed officers/agents/security guards at these things, not to mention on-location emergency services (ambulances and EMT crews stationed at the location during the convention) that it would be hard for anyone to successfully assault people at the convention in a mass manner. At best a few dead and a lot of wounded before the attacker gets taken down. Bombs are going to have a hard time making it in, and having a personal weapon wouldn't help against a bomber anyway.

Out of curiosity, I wonder what power the secret service has to run the convention security anyway. They may have some say over the candidates themselves, but what are they going to do - threaten that the candidates can't come to the convention if the convention doesn't meet their security? And what if the convention said, "Ok, your candidate doesn't have to be present if they can't be."? It all sounds like a big logistical legal mess to me, and picking apart the agreements vs the constitutionally protected rights of the participants wouldn't be trivial.
 
You're probably right. The only variable is how loud and ugly it will be. At the convention, if anyone other than Trump or Cruz is given the nomination, I wouldn't be surprised if punches start getting thrown on the floor of Quicken Loans Arena.
At this point, I think they're hoping for a miracle.
itsamiracle.jpg

source

--Patrick
 
I don't care what the poll in this thread says, I will not be voting for any of these candidates. It'll be a third party candidate, or I'm leaving the presidential section blank. I refuse to just vote for the lesser of two evils.

Now, having said all that... if you put a gun to my head, and these were my only 2 options, I will begrudgingly say that I think Hillary Clinton would do slightly less damage than Donald Trump. I think that she would have a better international presence, and his policies are too unrealistic for what actually needs to be done. That's about as good as I can hope for with these options.
 
I don't care what the poll in this thread says, I will not be voting for any of these candidates. It'll be a third party candidate, or I'm leaving the presidential section blank. I refuse to just vote for the lesser of two evils.

Now, having said all that... if you put a gun to my head, and these were my only 2 options, I will begrudgingly say that I think Hillary Clinton would do slightly less damage than Donald Trump. I think that she would have a better international presence, and his policies are too unrealistic for what actually needs to be done. That's about as good as I can hope for with these options.
I don't know, I think Trump would cause a lot more fighting between the branches.
 
Out of curiosity, I wonder what power the secret service has to run the convention security anyway. They may have some say over the candidates themselves, but what are they going to do - threaten that the candidates can't come to the convention if the convention doesn't meet their security? And what if the convention said, "Ok, your candidate doesn't have to be present if they can't be."? It all sounds like a big logistical legal mess to me, and picking apart the agreements vs the constitutionally protected rights of the participants wouldn't be trivial.
The candidate is free to decline protection by the Secret Service, as it's not a mandatory imposition. It is unclear whether one can waive Secret Service protection just for one event/situation, it may very well be an all-or-nothing situation (would make sense to me, otherwise the logistics could become very cumbersome). It would be quite foolish to permanently cheat yourself out of free (free as in taxpayer-funded) protection.

Source is the Secret Service's website (surprisingly good SEO):

From their page on Protection:
Protection for the President and Vice President of the United States is mandatory. All other individuals entitled to Secret Service protection may decline security if they choose.
From their FAQ:
The Secret Service DOES NOT determine who qualifies for protection, nor is the Secret Service empowered to independently initiate candidate protection.
Under 18 U.S.C.' 3056(a)(7), "[m]ajor Presidential and Vice Presidental candidates," as identified by the Secretary of Homeland Security, are eligible for Secret Service protection.
Title 18 U.S.C.' 3056(a)(7) authorizes the U.S. Secret Service to provide protection for major presidential and vice presidential candidates:
  • Protection is authorized by the DHS Secretary after consultation with the Congressional Advisory Committee
  • The Congressional Advisory Committee includes: Speaker of the House, House Minority Leader, Senate Majority Leader, Senate Minority Leader, and one additional member selected by the others
Criteria have been established to assist the DHS Secretary and the advisory committee in their decision making (as of 2008). Candidates must:
  • Be publically announced
  • Have some degree of prominence as shown by opinion polls
  • Be actively campaigning and entered in at least 10 state primaries
  • Be seeking the nomination of a qualified party
  • Have qualified for matching funds in the amount of at least $100,000
  • Have received contributions totaling $10 million
Title 18 U.S.C.' 3056(a)(7) states that the U.S. Secret Service is also authroized to protect spouses of major Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates, as identified by the DHS Secretary, within 120 days of the general Presidential election. Some candidates have received protection earlier in the campaign pursuant to Presidential memoranda.
 
I don't care what the poll in this thread says, I will not be voting for any of these candidates. It'll be a third party candidate, or I'm leaving the presidential section blank. I refuse to just vote for the lesser of two evils.
You could always write-in.
 
In reality there's nothing certain at this point. Yes, I think you are probably correct, but you are speaking like it's a given and it's not.

Cruz - Virtually impossible at this point. He's only won 2 (or 3) states and RNC rules say that a candidate has to win at least 8 states to be able to get votes. Now, it'll be interesting to see if they change the rules before the convention to screw Trump.

Trump - The probable republican nominee. He brings a lot of baggage with him and has alienated Hispanics, Muslims, and women. Not necessarily in that order. But there are a LOT of people who like him and if Hillary is the democratic nominee, there's a lot who will vote for the other guy or stay home because of how much they despise her and her opportunistic politics.

Bernie - Right now without counting the supers, Bernie is down by about 250 delegates and has won 8 of the last 9 states. New York, California, and Pennsylvania are still coming up. Hillary is NOT the nominee yet, but of course the supers are all paid for by the Clinton Victory Fund so Bernie is fighting an uphill battle against an entrenched establishment that refuses to play on a level field because they know they'd get beaten. Bernie is only behind by a couple hundred delegates and he's doing that in the face of overwhelming odds, DNC bias against him (the head of the DNC was a Hillary staff member in the 2008 campaign and changes whatever rules necessary to help her friend), and a corporate media (strangely enough mad donors to the Clintons) that refuses to acknowledge the fact that Hillary continually obfuscates, lies, and flip-flops while propping her up as you do - giving her the nomination before she's earned it.
My impression is that Bernie's about to take an ass kicking in New York. Would that be an accurate assessment of the situation, as things look right now?
 
Yes. Sanders winning Michigan was one of the biggest upsets ever in a primary. That would be nothing compared to if he won New York.
 

GasBandit

Staff member
As in, "born and raised in Chicago, and spent most of her professional life in Arkansas." She's no more a New York native than I am. As I've said before, her NY Senator seat was payback from the DNC for not divorcing Bill while he was in office, as the democrat incumbent was retiring and her republican opponent was a nobody (and she still nearly lost).

But New Yorkers drink the kool-aid as fervently as any Californian, so I expect they'll pick her as well. But I could be wrong. I can never tell what's going on in the head of people who live there.
 
I can never tell if people outside New York understand this. Like, they know there's a larger state besides Manhattan, but a lot of times I've found people think it's all one giant urban sprawl. New York has a ridiculous amount of shitty backwater towns, small cities, and lots of nature.

The problem is that "upstate" ends up being considered the entire inland state, rather than what it actually means, which is Syracuse.
 
Its true! Our property values are super cheap! I could find a nice apartment in a good area downtown for under $1000 a month!
In all seriousness, what's the percentage of population of "greater new york but still in the state of new york" versus the rest of the state?
 

Necronic

Staff member
This is the most amazing election ever. After 8 years of Obama, one of the most liberal presidents our country has seen in decades, this election was the republican party's to lose. And they ended up putting forward Trump.

And now, with Trump as the defacto nominee, it's the Democrats election to lose. And they put forward Hillary.

I feel like this election is like going out to eat at the Golden Coral. There is a lot of variety, but everything there still tastes like ass.
 

GasBandit

Staff member
This is the most amazing election ever. After 8 years of Obama, one of the most liberal presidents our country has seen in decades, this election was the republican party's to lose. And they ended up putting forward Trump.
Well, to be fair, the Republican Party didn't want Trump (or Cruz, or even Rubio). They wanted Jeb Bush, or someone as close to him as possible. But the voters didn't, and the GOP doesn't have superdelegates to squash grassroots candidates.

And now, with Trump as the defacto nominee, it's the Democrats election to lose. And they put forward Hillary.

I feel like this election is like going out to eat at the Golden Coral. There is a lot of variety, but everything there still tastes like ass.
Current national polling basically has them in a dead heat. It's a testament to how weak both candidates are.

NBC says it's 48-45

Quinnepiac says that, in typical swing states, at best, it's 43-42.

Rasmussen also says they're tied.

Nate Silver, who correctly predicted the outcome in all 50 states in 2012 (but only gave Donald Trump a 5% chance of winning the GOP nomination) says Trump has a 25% chance of winning the general election.
 
I still think that there are more Democratic voters who would "hold their nose" and vote Hillary/whoever than there are GOP voters who'd vote Trump/Christie (or whatever).
 

GasBandit

Staff member
I still think that there are more Democratic voters who would "hold their nose" and vote Hillary/whoever than there are GOP voters who'd vote Trump/Christie (or whatever).
Who knows what will happen between now and november, but right now Bernie supporters are practically waving pitchforks and carving #NeverHillary into their foreheads.
 
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