Gas Bandit's Political Thread V: The Vampire Likes Bats
- Thread starter GasBandit
- Start date
His lead is high enough that there isn't really a path for Kelly to make a comeback unless the remaining counties somehow flip. Ossoff is only up in the air because a lot of people seem to be splitting the vote, so there is more uncertainty, but he is still outperforming his numbers from the general election while perdue is underperforming. It's going to come down to Atlanta.
Many doomscrollers on reddit and twitter since Perdue and Loeffler took a small lead awhile back, but people need to stop looking at it like a sports game where each side scores points. The votes are already cast, so it's only about counting the votes that are there, and that is why trends are so important. Most counties don't see heavy shifts in % of votes, only in amount of votes, and due to size of rural areas, the heavy red areas usually get in their votes first. It was the trends that showed us that Biden was taking the swing states even after Trump gathered a massive lead going into election night, because mail in and cities come in later.
The NYT has a good estimate on the race based on what remains to be counted, the trends of those areas, and the reported numbers of votes cast in each county. The needle continues to drift left by the minute.
In other words, for Perdue and Loeffler to get a win, they need to be WAY less close now that all the rural counts are done. The fact that it's neck in neck is bad for them, even though they lead so far.
The NYT has a good estimate on the race based on what remains to be counted, the trends of those areas, and the reported numbers of votes cast in each county. The needle continues to drift left by the minute.
In other words, for Perdue and Loeffler to get a win, they need to be WAY less close now that all the rural counts are done. The fact that it's neck in neck is bad for them, even though they lead so far.
DecisionDesk just called it for Warnock. It's going to come down to Ossoff and Perdue now.
The needle just shot to Pretty Likely Ossoff, 95% chance of winning.
What really surprised me? Reading up on these races, Warnock is going to be the first black senator of Georgia, and Ossoff will be the first Jewish senator of Georgia. Warnock will also be the 11th black American to become a senator in history. I can't believe Georgia likely just became a swing state.
What really surprised me? Reading up on these races, Warnock is going to be the first black senator of Georgia, and Ossoff will be the first Jewish senator of Georgia. Warnock will also be the 11th black American to become a senator in history. I can't believe Georgia likely just became a swing state.
Barring any absolutely ridiculous shifts in Atlanta, this is pretty much a done deal. There isn't a path for the red team to win unless they somehow flip those areas red, which is extremely unlikely. All red counties have finished reporting.
I like to think we are slowly crawling our way back to sanity, fragile though it may be.
Ossoff just took the lead back after a dump from Dekalb, overperforming from the expectation. He is going to win this comfortably at this rate.
Dave Wasserman said it's not even a "nail biter", the math just isn't going to work out for the Republicans. Ossoff just needs 51% of the remaining votes and projections have him getting 77-80%. The only question now is whether he will get enough to go over the forced recount threshold.
Dave Wasserman said it's not even a "nail biter", the math just isn't going to work out for the Republicans. Ossoff just needs 51% of the remaining votes and projections have him getting 77-80%. The only question now is whether he will get enough to go over the forced recount threshold.
Listen, first off I wouldn't change my vote for them even in hindsight, so let me get that out of the way, but I look back way differently on Republicans like McCain and Romney after the age of Trump. I may have not agreed with them politically, but when I now have Trump as the baseline of the Republican standard, I really see them more favorably then I did back then. (Not W though, fuck that guy)
Anyways, I only talk about this because the Leopards are hungry.
Anyways, I only talk about this because the Leopards are hungry.
figmentPez
Staff member
Yeah, and they're going to life miserable for everyone. It'd be nice if they just targeted Republicans, but they won't care who they tear to shreds.
Someone just pointed out to me that this means Democrats will also now chair all senate committees. So not only is Mitch now Minority Leader, but Lindsey Graham will be losing his power too.
figmentPez
Staff member
All this only makes a difference if Democrats are willing to use the power they now have....
I know, it could all be for nothing.
But at the least, for now, I can sleep a little better.
She is a 1 of 2 Senators from California.
In 14 days she resigns and becomes VP.
Senate is then 50 GOP 49 DEM with 1 vacancy. She oversees the Senate but does not vote unless to break a tie
I am discussing the concept that you can expect the GOP to retain control until she is replaced.
In 14 days she resigns and becomes VP.
Senate is then 50 GOP 49 DEM with 1 vacancy. She oversees the Senate but does not vote unless to break a tie
I am discussing the concept that you can expect the GOP to retain control until she is replaced.
Governor filled appointment. There will be a special election in 2022. Basically the exact same thing that happened with Loeffler in Georgia.
In case you were wondering, this is the replacement.
TIL. There are 5 states that don't have the governor appoint an interim senator. For reference, they're Oregon, Rhode Island, North Dakota, Oklahoma, and Wisconsin.
That being said, that was an incredibly easy google search so you could've easily figured that out rather than claiming republicans will still have the majority for months based off of how it works for 10% of the country.
That being said, that was an incredibly easy google search so you could've easily figured that out rather than claiming republicans will still have the majority for months based off of how it works for 10% of the country.
