Gas Bandit's Political Thread V: The Vampire Likes Bats
- Thread starter GasBandit
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figmentPez
Staff member
And the truly pessimistic map:
The only voting that really counts happens in DC. Either Trump declaring himself the winner, or the SCOTUS declaring him the winner, with military (US and foreign), police, and hired mercenaries enforcing those rulings with violence.
The only voting that really counts happens in DC. Either Trump declaring himself the winner, or the SCOTUS declaring him the winner, with military (US and foreign), police, and hired mercenaries enforcing those rulings with violence.
I was talking my daughter through the ballot for her first time voting, and she got to that part of the and said "Wait, that's not already illegal?".
Depends on who you ask. The measure was implemented in the early 50's, long before it was possible to carry a device in your pocket that could conceivably access literal terabytes of potentially incriminating info. As the ACLU article says, border agents are still supposed to have probable cause before they can perform a search, but in practice, the DHS seems to view "attempting to enter the country" as sufficient cause.
--Patrick
Dave
Staff member
Nebraska is voting this election to make SLAVERY illegal. Well, it removes slavery as a possible punishment for crimes. Yes, right now in Nebraska it's technically legal to sell someone into slavery as punishment for a crime.
ballotpedia.org
Nebraska Amendment 1, Remove Slavery as Punishment for Crime from Constitution Amendment (2020)
Ballotpedia: The Encyclopedia of American Politics
The constitution explicitly says slavery is acceptable for criminals.
It's also exactly what prison labor is
I just spoke with my mother and I can tell she was flustered. Definitely did not have the same vigor that she had last election. It made me feel oddly content because her mood to me speaks more than any poll.
If she is nervous that Trump is going to lose I really think it's going to happen.
One thing that makes me kind of sad is that because of all the legal shenanigans even though the votes that were taken will count, the person who is in charge of the drive-thru voting stations has knocked it down to only one rather than the nine that happened during early voting. Makes me wonder if that was the plan all along from the Republicans. Eight less voting stations is never a good thing.
If she is nervous that Trump is going to lose I really think it's going to happen.
One thing that makes me kind of sad is that because of all the legal shenanigans even though the votes that were taken will count, the person who is in charge of the drive-thru voting stations has knocked it down to only one rather than the nine that happened during early voting. Makes me wonder if that was the plan all along from the Republicans. Eight less voting stations is never a good thing.
They're all nervous it's not going to happen. That's why they've been posturing and strutting so hard.
--Patrick
Honestly, the desperation does feel very real. Would feel good if not for the fact that desperation can lead to some really bad shit.
So today I had to drive past the annex that I cast my vote a week ago, and of course it's full of voters today, but I noticed something almost instantly. EVERY sign for a Democratic candidate was gone. Either it was replaced with another duplicate Republican sign, or with a "Candidate wants to DEFUND THE POLICE!" sign, with some lady near the parking lot entrance holding up a huge 15 foot sign saying the same slogan. Honestly, it makes me angry, but really shows exactly how desperate they are around here.
Yes. And replace them with someone whose first, second, and third options aren't "shoot the motherfucker."
Well, both are true. But if Biden takes one, he probably takes the other.
I mean, there's a dozen different ways to color the map and say "this one will clinch it".
All polls say Biden should win easily. The ONLY way Trump wins legitimately is if there's a heavy polling error - bigger than 2016's.
If it turns out the polls are off 5%, sure, that means Trump'll take PA. it also means he keeps half the Rust Belt, and NC, Florida and Ohio.
Going by 538's polling maps, just picking sides where either candidate has a higher than 99% chance of winning, Biden has 188 EC votes. That does not include Oregon, Colorado, New Mexico, or Minnesota. Give him those, he's up to 219. Add Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada and he's at 251. And that's still just states where he's over 95% chance of winning. In the mean time, with the same numbers, Trump's up to 121 EC votes. Give him Montana, Texas, Ohio and Iowa - all probable to go for Trump but only in the 70s percentile - he's still only at 186. Throw in New Hampshire and Maine (plus 1st) for Biden, Nebraska's 1st and 3rd for Trump, You're at 258 vs 187. Trump needs to pull off Florida, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina. Sure it's possible. But any of those mean Biden wins - and he's favored in all of them with at least a 65% chance.
The question is hardly "will Trump suddenly pull off an upset and win big". It's "is there some way in the broken-ass system you guys use where he just barely squeaks by?". No, not even that - it's "will the Biden camp win so convincingly that even Republicans accept it?". Which he won't.
I mean, there's a dozen different ways to color the map and say "this one will clinch it".
All polls say Biden should win easily. The ONLY way Trump wins legitimately is if there's a heavy polling error - bigger than 2016's.
If it turns out the polls are off 5%, sure, that means Trump'll take PA. it also means he keeps half the Rust Belt, and NC, Florida and Ohio.
Going by 538's polling maps, just picking sides where either candidate has a higher than 99% chance of winning, Biden has 188 EC votes. That does not include Oregon, Colorado, New Mexico, or Minnesota. Give him those, he's up to 219. Add Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada and he's at 251. And that's still just states where he's over 95% chance of winning. In the mean time, with the same numbers, Trump's up to 121 EC votes. Give him Montana, Texas, Ohio and Iowa - all probable to go for Trump but only in the 70s percentile - he's still only at 186. Throw in New Hampshire and Maine (plus 1st) for Biden, Nebraska's 1st and 3rd for Trump, You're at 258 vs 187. Trump needs to pull off Florida, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina. Sure it's possible. But any of those mean Biden wins - and he's favored in all of them with at least a 65% chance.
The question is hardly "will Trump suddenly pull off an upset and win big". It's "is there some way in the broken-ass system you guys use where he just barely squeaks by?". No, not even that - it's "will the Biden camp win so convincingly that even Republicans accept it?". Which he won't.
It actually is what the left wants, it's not what the liberals want
I want to once again point out that in 2016, 8,969,226 people voted in the Presidential Election in Texas. Hilary lost by around 800,000 votes.
In 2018, slightly less voted in the senate race at 8,306,185 total votes, but Beto lost by less then 200,000 votes.
We are now over 10 million votes and are projected to reach around 12 million before all this is said and done today, with heavy democratic areas shattering turnout records.
Of course, it's still a toss up what will happen, because when Democratic fervor is high you just know there are going to be some "low energy" Republicans that are going to try to counter it, but as they say, high voter turnout usually favors Democratic candidates over Republican.
Wish us luck.
In 2018, slightly less voted in the senate race at 8,306,185 total votes, but Beto lost by less then 200,000 votes.
We are now over 10 million votes and are projected to reach around 12 million before all this is said and done today, with heavy democratic areas shattering turnout records.
Of course, it's still a toss up what will happen, because when Democratic fervor is high you just know there are going to be some "low energy" Republicans that are going to try to counter it, but as they say, high voter turnout usually favors Democratic candidates over Republican.
Wish us luck.
figmentPez
Staff member
Dumbest political take I've seen today (though I'm sure it will be surpassed, shortly)
figmentPez
Staff member
Well, this is an awful case of voter intimidation.
GasBandit
Staff member
Still way too early to tell, but google is telling me it has Biden up 85 to 61.
Aaaand I think I'm done checking for the night. I don't want to spend my night getting an ulcer. I'll just hear about it in the morning.
And for the rest of 2020 probably.
Biden wins = the first good news of the year.
Trump wins = yeah... Covid was just the appetizer.