So, I guess its about time we start talking about Ukraine

Necronic

Necronic

Staff member
Whelp, this is starting to get legitimately scary.

This isn't just thugs anymore, these are armed insurgents taking down helicopters. No one is for sure yet if they are Spetznaz, which to me seems unlikely because they are dying in large amounts, but they are remarkably well armed (with missiles and stuff).

Then this happened today in Odessa:

http://www.haaretz.com/news/world/1.588724

As I read it somewhere else pro-Ukrainian activists went and torched a Pro-Russian camp, the Russians shot 10 or so of the Ukranians, then the Ukranians chased them into a building, trapped them inside, and burned them alive in it.

Also, apparently the sanctions may actually really significant as well. This isn't just about Putin's buddies having assets frozen. This is about big businesses in Russia being cut out of all international business. But still, I keep hearing different accounts about how serious it really is. Republican news says its useless, dem news says its super effective.

So...yeah, anyone know more about this? I'm trying to get caught up but its very confusing with all the spin etc.
 
GasBandit

GasBandit

Staff member
Sanctions are pretty toothless, particularly since Russia has Europe's energy market by the balls. The only thing Russians understand is strength of arms and shows of force. It's crystal clear to anyone who looks at it for more than 3 seconds that the "uprisings" in Ukraine are either directly perpetrated by Russian agents, or supplied/bankrolled by Russia. But because NATO (and particularly the US) has no political will to risk starting an actual shooting war with Russia (or any other nuclear power for that matter), Putin's betting he can do just about anything he wants short of invading an actual NATO alliance member, so long as he uses these "undermine then go in to rescue" chicanery tactics.
 
Necronic

Necronic

Staff member
Dude I pretty much never post in general. Why would this be general anyways? This is clearly politics.
 
D

Dubyamn

About the sanctions in particular. It's not correct that they are toothless and have had no effect they've frozen significant Russian assets outside of Russia and have stopped foreign capital from flowing back into Russia which is causing Russia to go into a full Recession and a huge amount of Russia's money just vanished when their stock market took a big hit. And once the Nationalist Fervor dies down people are going to start disliking the price Russia has paid for Crimea.

On the other hand it's obvious that the sanctions are not having the effect that the west wanted. Putin is still advancing under the "cover" of those guys who Russia total knows nothing about but who they will back with their full military might. So both sides are right about the effect of sanctions. They haven't stopped the advance but they have really hurt Russia's economy.

Beyond that I think that Putin has made a huge mistake with his takeover of Crimea. Ukraine used to be a reliable ally for Russia and a good part of that was because of the very pro-russian vote from Crimea. Now that he has removed that from Ukraine there will never be another Ukrainian government that sides with Russia over the west. Russia has lost one of it's centers of control literally for a peninsula that can't even power or water itself.
 
GasBandit

GasBandit

Staff member
Dubyamn said:
Beyond that I think that Putin has made a huge mistake with his takeover of Crimea. Ukraine used to be a reliable ally for Russia and a good part of that was because of the very pro-russian vote from Crimea. Now that he has removed that from Ukraine there will never be another Ukrainian government that sides with Russia over the west. Russia has lost one of it's centers of control literally for a peninsula that can't even power or water itself.
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That's assuming there's still a "Ukraine" after all this is over.
 
AshburnerX

AshburnerX

Russia's kind of backed into the corner on this one... they are committed to taking Ukraine, but they can't just wait for winter and sweep in like they historically have. This is Ukraine... possibly the only European country worse off than Russia, weather-wise. If this becomes protracted, Russia loses because they aren't any better at fighting a determined native force than we are (look at Chechnya). But at the same time, Russia can't rush in and take the country without ethnically cleansing the region.

And the longer this goes one, the worse off their economy will be. Russia is a petrostate. Yes, Europe will buy oil from them in the short term... but that can't keep them going ALONE. Worse, if they start upping the price of their oil to Europe, the price of imported food and goods FROM Europe goes up in response. Basically, their economy is fucked.

The final issue is that Putin's government is hanging on by a thread. It's all hyper masculine nationalism. Once the Russian people have to face the specter of waiting in line for BREAD again, they'll boot him out.
 
Eriol

Eriol

AshburnerX said:
Once the Russian people have to face the specter of waiting in line for BREAD again, they'll boot him out.
Click to expand...
Who? How? The USSR basically imploded from within, not because the citizens had uprisings. Who in Russia is going to organize people to ACTUALLY push him out? Or even physically go in there and capture/kill him? What would the mechanism be? Do they have free access to guns there? I assure you his bodyguards do. HOW will it occur?
 
AshburnerX

AshburnerX

Eriol said:
Who? How? The USSR basically imploded from within, not because the citizens had uprisings. Who in Russia is going to organize people to ACTUALLY push him out? Or even physically go in there and capture/kill him? What would the mechanism be? Do they have free access to guns there? I assure you his bodyguards do. HOW will it occur?
Click to expand...
The mechanism would be the next guy who wants to seize power in Russia putting a bullet in Putin, as has been done there since time immemorial. That's just how things are kind of done in Siberia.
 
Krisken

Krisken

Necronic said:
Whelp, this is starting to get legitimately scary.

This isn't just thugs anymore, these are armed insurgents taking down helicopters. No one is for sure yet if they are Spetznaz, which to me seems unlikely because they are dying in large amounts, but they are remarkably well armed (with missiles and stuff).

Then this happened today in Odessa:

http://www.haaretz.com/news/world/1.588724

As I read it somewhere else pro-Ukrainian activists went and torched a Pro-Russian camp, the Russians shot 10 or so of the Ukranians, then the Ukranians chased them into a building, trapped them inside, and burned them alive in it.

Also, apparently the sanctions may actually really significant as well. This isn't just about Putin's buddies having assets frozen. This is about big businesses in Russia being cut out of all international business. But still, I keep hearing different accounts about how serious it really is. Republican news says its useless, dem news says its super effective.

So...yeah, anyone know more about this? I'm trying to get caught up but its very confusing with all the spin etc.
Click to expand...
Planet money had a good segment on sanctions and their relative effectiveness.
 
Dave

Dave

Staff member
I'm keeping an eye on this because Zach is going (tomorrow!) to South Korea. If anything does happen they'll be doing a surge from there and Europe.
 
Terrik

Terrik

I have a Ukrainian co-worker. He's going to take a couple days off. At our morning staff meeting, our boss made a quip that he was going home to "fight a war". He looked straight ahead and said, "Thirty-one people were burned alive in my home town."

...

...


*cough* Next on the agenda...



Good goin' boss.
 
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