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Guess the date of Trump's Impeachment!

#1

Dave

Dave

Okay, so the prevailing rumor and thought now is that Trump does not want the Presidency, really, and that establishment republicans would rather see Pence. So they are predicting that Trump will do something and the republican congress will impeach him. So let's have some fun.

I'm going to hold a contest to see who gets closer to the date of his eventual impeachment.

Rules:
  1. You can only pick one (1) date and it has to be PAST his inauguration day.
  2. If he resigns or does not take the office, nobody wins.
  3. If he makes it to the next election date in 2020, nobody wins.
  4. In the event of a tie (tow people guess within the same number of days) the person guessing the earlier date wins.
  5. Prize is $100 USD paid by myself. And that's $100 at the dollar rate of the time the contest is won.

Let's put money on the latest conspiracy theory!


#2

Frank

Frank

Jan. 22, 2018.

It will be my 35th birthday gift.


#3

blotsfan

blotsfan

Can I bet on he doesn't?


#4

Dei

Dei

What about getting bored and resigning?


#5

Ravenpoe

Ravenpoe

President Pence? That's even WORSE. He's just as horrible as Donald Trump but not as dumb.


#6

Terrik

Terrik

He'll get impeached as soon as GWB and Obama does.


#7



BErt

I'll go in for "very, very quickly"...Feb 8, 2017

Edit to explain: I believe the "rumors" that he doesn't want it. I don't think he ever wanted it. There was an article right after he won the primary by the former head of his super PAC that her instructions were to make sure he finished "no worse than 3rd" in the primary.


#8

Timmus

Timmus

He's there until 2020. Even if it were true that he wants out there's no face saving way for him to resign. I have a hard time imagining a republican congress impeaches him either. I don't think they want to risk alienating the people responsible for nominating and eventually electing him.

I do like the idea of the GOP not wanting him and Trump not wanting but having to do the job though. There is a certain justice to the notion that all the major players in this election are being punished for subjecting the American electorate to this debacle. Hillary and the DNC's punishment is obvious, Trump could be living a be careful what you wish for scenario, and the establishment republicans have to live with losing control of their voters and their president.

In any case I hope everyone who has a lesson to learn out of all this learned the right one whatever that may be...


PS. January 30 2019


#9

Dei

Dei

Ravenpoe said:
President Pence? That's even WORSE. He's just as horrible as Donald Trump but not as dumb.
Click to expand...
Pence is going to be president in all but name anyways.


#10

Gared

Gared

You think this may be the one reason Pence decided not to leave the ticket after the "grab them by the pussy" incident?


#11

Hailey Knight

Hailey Knight

June 1, 2018


#12

Gruebeard

Gruebeard

August 17 2019

By the way, is this the date that the

1) impeachment takes effect - the day he's actually kicked out
2) the impeachment is passed (assuming there's some transition time)


#13

Dave

Dave

Gruebeard said:
2) the impeachment is passed (assuming there's some transition time)
Click to expand...


#14

Hailey Knight

Hailey Knight

Mine is for resignation, but I'll take what I can get.


#15

Dave

Dave

Okay so my guess is...September 28, 2017.


#16

phil

phil

I dunno. I think maybe if it was a joke or something at first, now that he has it I'm sure he thinks he really deserves it. My money is full 8 years.


#17

jwhouk

jwhouk

August 9, 2019.

Sent from my NextBook


#18

Hailey Knight

Hailey Knight

phil said:
My money is full 8 years.
Click to expand...
Dave said there's no prize if Trump finishes out, so you might as well throw out a date and see if you get lucky.

Sent from my CurrentComputer


#19

phil

phil

Zero Esc said:
Dave said there's no prize if Trump finishes out, so you might as well throw out a date and see if you get lucky.

Sent from my CurrentComputer
Click to expand...
Meh, by then we'll be trading nestle brand water rations that we got from our jobs at pray the [behavior deemed inappropriate] camps.


#20

Hailey Knight

Hailey Knight

phil said:
Meh, by then we'll be trading nestle brand water rations that we got from our jobs at pray the [behavior deemed inappropriate] camps.
Click to expand...
Not if you guess earlier than that.

You're not allowed to be lazy about this. Gruebeard's already claimed that at his thing; you can't just take someone else's thing.


#21

PatrThom

PatrThom

Gruebeard said:
By the way, is this the date that the
1) impeachment takes effect - the day he's actually kicked out
2) the impeachment is passed (assuming there's some transition time)
Click to expand...
"Impeachment" is merely the leveling of charges.
"Confirmation" is the second step.

As for my guess, I'm going to wait a month or so to see how the wind is blowing, first.

--Patrick


#22

Gared

Gared

I'm going to go early on this as well, with Feb 3, 2017. I think that's two days after the second time he either threatens to revoke a Bill of Rights amendment, or threatens military action against an ally nation - up to and potentially including the threat of nuclear strike; because he's being taunted online by Americans or a foreign diplomat let's slip something judgmental about him on a hot mic.


#23

Dave

Dave

You have until inauguration day to guess.


#24

blotsfan

blotsfan

Assuming my pick of "never" isn't valid, I'll go may 15th 2018


#25

Eriol

Eriol

Why is resigning not part of it? NIXON resigned for instance. So I'd say resigned due to scandal (though how we'll determine what THAT would be might be an issue) should be a valid guessing why/when he's gone, but it's ultimately your money Dave.


November 5th, 2018 btw. Guy Fawkes day. Just for shits and giggles.


#26

Timmus

Timmus

Eriol said:
Why is resigning not part of it? NIXON resigned for instance. So I'd say resigned due to scandal (though how we'll determine what THAT would be might be an issue) should be a valid guessing why/when he's gone, but it's ultimately your money Dave.


November 5th, 2018 btw. Guy Fawkes day. Just for shits and giggles.
Click to expand...

Resign to avoid impeachment should totally be an option.


#27

sixpackshaker

sixpackshaker

May 2021, won't happen in his first term.


#28

Hailey Knight

Hailey Knight

Trump will do the Nixon pose and say "I invented this."


#29

Amy

Amy

When does he go on trial for fraud? That's my date


#30

Frank

Frank

Heh, his lawyers are arguing that those fraud charges should never go to court. It would be JUST too chaotic for a president elect to be forced to appear in court and besides, it was SOOOOO long ago.


#31

Denbrought

Denbrought

@Dave Assassination/death in office is not covered by these rules, you might want to pick an outcome (probably 'nobody wins'). I mean, 1 in 6 of your Presidents end up that way, so...

December 1st 2017, though I'm inclined to think he'll serve at least one full term.


#32

GasBandit

GasBandit

October 10, 2018. Just in time to affect the midterms.


#33

Dave

Dave

Assassination/death means the contest is over without a winner. Except Pence. And in that scenario we all lose anyway.


#34

Timmus

Timmus

GasBandit said:
October 10, 2018. Just in time to affect the midterms.
Click to expand...

"See, we're checking and balancing him!"


...could work.


#35

Siska

Siska

Eeeh, even though I could see him possibly being (successfully) impeached because there is a little chance of things not being corrupts as hell with conflicts of interest all over, I don't think other republicans will be willing to confront him in large enough numbers. They will bend over backwards trying to gloss it over because they are more afraid of losing their position then the country turning into a banana republic. I think it's actually more likely that he will resign because being president is no fun and a lot of work health reasons and again Republicans will praise him for being so brave to step down. And we get president Mike Pence. :eek:

But here's my number 12/18/2018


#36

Krisken

Krisken

Yeah, I don't even find this all that funny anymore.


#37

Hailey Knight

Hailey Knight

Siska said:
I think it's actually more likely that he will resign because being president is no fun and a lot of work health reasons and again Republicans will praise him for being so brave to step down. And we get president Mike Pence. :eek:
Click to expand...
This is exactly how I see it to the point that I suggested to my wife last night he would fake a health condition to get out of this if need be. It's the one way out where he can save face.


#38

blotsfan

blotsfan

But he's the healthiest person ever elected president.


#39

sixpackshaker

sixpackshaker

blotsfan said:
But he's the healthiest person ever elected president.
Click to expand...
Like that time he was filmed out jogging?

Wait, that was Carter, Bush, Clinton, Bush, and Obama (though he played more basketball.)


#40

@Li3n

@Li3n

blotsfan said:
But he's the healthiest person ever elected president.
Click to expand...
Sure, but that was before getting elected. He said nothing about not getting sick after.


#41

GasBandit

GasBandit

He'll be diagnosed with a Brain Cloud, and have to go to an island in the Pacific.


#42

sixpackshaker

sixpackshaker

GasBandit said:
He'll be diagnosed with a Brain Cloud, and have to go to an island in the Pacific.
Click to expand...
Too bad he won't be there to meet him...



#43

Dave

Dave

References to Joe vs. the Volcano are always welcomed.


#44

jwhouk

jwhouk

Bulworth. Took me forever to remember the name of the movie. 20 years old, but was Warren Beatty prescient?

Sent from my NextBook


#45

GasBandit

GasBandit

jwhouk said:
Bulworth. Took me forever to remember the name of the movie. 20 years old, but was Warren Beatty prescient?
Click to expand...
I'm not sure I follow how Bulworth is comperable here. Bulworth took out a hit on himself... I'm not sure Trump would go THAT far.

Well, I guess, yeah, he also "told it like it is," in that he dropped the facade that the Democrat party cares the tiniest shred about anything the black community actually wants or needs...


#46

jwhouk

jwhouk

I wasn't sure which thread to post it to, TBH. I'm not working on a whole lot of sleep at the moment...


#47

Bubble181

Bubble181

I don't think he'll be impeached, either. That said, my vote's on March 15th, 2022. Because, yes, of course he'll get re-elected.


#48

Gruebeard

Gruebeard

Bubble181 said:
I don't think he'll be impeached, either. That said, my vote's on March 15th, 2022. Because, yes, of course he'll get re-elected.
Click to expand...
Dude. Read the rules. This contest closes at the next election


#49

Bubble181

Bubble181

Gruebeard said:
Dude. Read the rules. This contest closes at the next election
Click to expand...
Ah, I thought it was his full run. Man, then I really don't think he'll be impeached. OK, in that case, a few weeks after the midterm elections.


#50

jwhouk

jwhouk

Technically, you have a 1 in 2,923 chance of winning - and the same of everyone losing.


#51

Denbrought

Denbrought

jwhouk said:
Technically, you have a 1 in 2,923 chance of winning - and the same of everyone losing.
Click to expand...
Assuming that there is no rhyme or reason to the dates that Congresses choose to impeach on (e.g. lack of things like "never impeach on a Friday"), he has a P(A*1/2,923) chance of winning and P(1-A) of losing, with A being the probability that Trump will be impeached, whatever that is estimated to be (for example, PredictIt has a market for the next POTUS being impeached in the first 100 days of office, currently sitting at 5%, which seems pretty overpriced).


#52

BananaHands

BananaHands

March 3rd, 2018.

It'll be the universe's birthday present to me.


#53

PatrThom

PatrThom

All right, I'll "vote."
October 27th, 2017

--Patrick


#54

Null

Null

August 3rd. 2017.


#55

MindDetective

MindDetective

October 16, 2019


#56

Sparhawk

Sparhawk

January 29, 2019.

Also, not happening at all. But, I'll take a chance at taking Dave's money.


#57

General Specific

General Specific

I want to say Dec 31st, 2019. By the Republicans so that they can simultaneously say that they allowed Trump his full term and that they removed him from office. Pandering to both sides of the issue at the same time.

But, my actual guess will be: April 20th, 2018. Coincidentally Hitler's birthday, but done so Republicans can run midterm election campaigns on "We Stopped Trump."


#58

Dave

Dave

Bumping for Great Justice!


#59

blotsfan

blotsfan

Dave said:
Bumping for Great Justice!
Click to expand...
Did Mueller get the vast majority of republicans out of congress?


#60

Eriol

Eriol

At least some people are out already. I wonder how many entries, how many people. I'm FAR too lazy today (I'm sick actually) to do the (small) amount of work myself.


#61

PatrThom

PatrThom

Eriol said:
I'm FAR too lazy today (I'm sick actually) to do the (small) amount of work myself.
Click to expand...
But for me, it was Tuesday Monday.[DOUBLEPOST=1509394779,1509394728][/DOUBLEPOST]
PatrThom said:
All right, I'll "vote."
October 27th, 2017
Click to expand...
I knew I'd chosen 10/27, I just couldn't remember which year.
Ah, well.

--Patrick


#62

Frank

Frank

I still have 2.75 months.


#63

Dave

Dave

I said September of this year. I was optimistic.


#64

blotsfan

blotsfan

I can't believe I said 2018 at all.


#65

jwhouk

jwhouk

Sadly, I hope I'm wrong, but I doubt I will be.


#66

strawman

strawman

3-Feb-2017 - Gared
8-Feb-2017 - Bert
3-Aug-2017 - Null
28-Sep-2017 - Dave
27-Oct-2017 - PatrThom
1-Dec-2017 - Denbrought
22-Jan-2018 - Frank

Today - 35% of the guesses have passed.

3-Mar-2018 - BananaHands
20-Apr-2018 - General Specific
15-May-2018 - blotsfan
1-Jun-2018 - Zero Esc
10-Oct-2018 - Gasbandit
5-Nov-2018 - Eriol
18-Dec-2018 - Siska
29-Jan-2019 - Sparhawk
30-Jan-2019 - Timmus
9-Aug-2019 - jwhouk
17-Aug-2019 - Gruebeard
16-Oct-2019 - MindDetective
(per the rules I've removed guesses beyond this term)


#67

PatrThom

PatrThom

I was so sure he wouldn’t even last one term.

—Patrick


#68

MindDetective

MindDetective

I'm in it for the long haul!


#69

Hailey Knight

Hailey Knight

Don't bump this thread on false alarm!


#70

blotsfan

blotsfan

lol, I had optimism that it was possible for a republican to have the slightest shred of integrity.


#71

Bubble181

Bubble181

blotsfan said:
lol, I had optimism that it was possible for a republican to have the slightest shred of integrity.
Click to expand...
I immediately said he wouldn't be impeached during his first term. And likely not during his second, either.


#72

DarkAudit

DarkAudit

Bubble181 said:
I immediately said he wouldn't be impeached during his first term. And likely not during his second, either.
Click to expand...
If he gets a second term, we absolutely deserve to be nuked off of the face of the planet.


#73

Bubble181

Bubble181

DarkAudit said:
If he gets a second term, we absolutely deserve to be nuked off of the face of the planet.
Click to expand...
Nukes cause fallout, fallout causes problems for the Canadian neighbours. You'll have to live with an apocalyps-through-Scampering, I'm afraid.


#74

DarkAudit

DarkAudit

Bubble181 said:
Nukes cause fallout, fallout causes problems for the Canadian neighbours. You'll have to live with an apocalyps-through-Scampering, I'm afraid.
Click to expand...
One would think if the signs pointed to a second term, the rest of the world would make a preemptive strike.


#75

Bubble181

Bubble181

DarkAudit said:
One would think if the signs pointed to a second term, the rest of the world would make a preemptive strike.
Click to expand...
We'll mock you and report relentlessly on the stupidity of your compatriots, then sit by and do nothing hold a protest march and carry on carrying on.

China and Russia love Trump. Have you seen that latest UN poll as to who is a world leader? First time since WWII the USA isn't considered #1 anymore.


#76

Terrik

Terrik

Bubble181 said:
We'll mock you and report relentlessly on the stupidity of your compatriots, then sit by and do nothing hold a protest march and carry on carrying on.

China and Russia love Trump. Have you seen that latest UN poll as to who is a world leader? First time since WWII the USA isn't considered #1 anymore.
Click to expand...
Here is an interesting article + video on the subject


#77

Gruebeard

Gruebeard

MindDetective said:
I'm in it for the long haul!
Click to expand...
I'm a little annoyed that you pretty much Price Is Righted me.


#78

strawman

strawman

Gruebeard said:
I'm a little annoyed that you pretty much Price Is Righted me.
Click to expand...
Psh. He's 30 days away, over 2% of the total term length.


#79

HCGLNS

HCGLNS

Terrik said:
Here is an interesting article + video on the subject
Click to expand...
"It is like watching a fire from across a river. The chaos is theirs and the more it burns the more fun it is to watch."

Canada be like "snow save us now!"


#80

Gruebeard

Gruebeard

Terrik said:
Here is an interesting article + video on the subject
Click to expand...
I'm amused that their picture of Ivanka has her leering lustily at Justin Trudeau.


#81

Dave

Dave

HCGLNS said:
Canada be like "snow save us now!"
Click to expand...
And the snow will whisper, "No."


#82

strawman

strawman

There's snow way it'll stop the apocalypse. Ice try, though.


#83

chris

chris

HCGLNS said:
"It is like watching a fire from across a river. The chaos is theirs and the more it burns the more fun it is to watch."

Canada be like "snow save us now!"
Click to expand...
Dave said:
And the snow will whisper, "No."
Click to expand...
Funny you quote that because: Doomsday Clock moved to just two minutes to 'apocalypse'


#84

GasBandit

GasBandit

chris said:
Funny you quote that because: Doomsday Clock moved to just two minutes to 'apocalypse'
Click to expand...


#85

strawman

strawman

3-Feb-2017 - Gared
8-Feb-2017 - Bert
3-Aug-2017 - Null
28-Sep-2017 - Dave
27-Oct-2017 - PatrThom
1-Dec-2017 - Denbrought
20-Jan-2018 One year into term
22-Jan-2018 - Frank
3-Mar-2018 - BananaHands
20-Apr-2018 - General Specific
15-May-2018 - blotsfan
1-Jun-2018 - Zero Esc

Today - 58% of the guesses have passed.

10-Oct-2018 - Gasbandit
5-Nov-2018 - Eriol
6-Nov-2018 - Midterm elections (poll results)
18-Dec-2018 - Siska
20-Jan-2019 Two years into term (halfway point)
29-Jan-2019 - Sparhawk
30-Jan-2019 - Timmus
9-Aug-2019 - jwhouk
17-Aug-2019 - Gruebeard
16-Oct-2019 - MindDetective
20-Jan-2020 Three years into term
3-Nov-2020 - Election
20-Jan-2021 - Inauguration


#86



BErt

can i change my answer to fucking never? He's never going to fucking go away


#87

blotsfan

blotsfan

He's 72, eats fast food every day, and doesn't believe in exercise...

He's 72, eats fast food every day, and doesn't believe in exercise...

He's 72, eats fast food every day, and doesn't believe in exercise...

He's 72, eats fast food every day, and doesn't believe in exercise...


#88

sixpackshaker

sixpackshaker

Looks like my May 2021 is still the most likely.


#89

ThatNickGuy

ThatNickGuy

I'm glad I never predicted because I don't think mine would've passed. I thought he'd be lucky to get by his first year.

The scariest possibility goes into the realm of distopian fiction, but instead of finishing his 4-year term and leaving the U.S. a disaster in his wake, I'm afraid he'll find a way to continue on and have a totalitarian regime. He's already pointed out North Korea's success in the same manner.


#90

PatrThom

PatrThom

I’m sure Trump would like nothing more than to continue on forever as the ruler of the world’s largest banana republic, and there are others who would also love to have someone so gullible and swayable as he in that position, and keeping these people from working behind his back to keep him propped up there on his throne is what will be the real challenge.

—Patrick


#91

Hailey Knight

Hailey Knight

stienman said:
3-Feb-2017 - Gared
8-Feb-2017 - Bert
3-Aug-2017 - Null
28-Sep-2017 - Dave
27-Oct-2017 - PatrThom
1-Dec-2017 - Denbrought
20-Jan-2018 One year into term
22-Jan-2018 - Frank
3-Mar-2018 - BananaHands
20-Apr-2018 - General Specific
15-May-2018 - blotsfan
1-Jun-2018 - Zero Esc

Today - 58% of the guesses have passed.

10-Oct-2018 - Gasbandit
5-Nov-2018 - Eriol
6-Nov-2018 - Midterm elections (poll results)
18-Dec-2018 - Siska
20-Jan-2019 Two years into term (halfway point)
29-Jan-2019 - Sparhawk
30-Jan-2019 - Timmus
9-Aug-2019 - jwhouk
17-Aug-2019 - Gruebeard
16-Oct-2019 - MindDetective
20-Jan-2020 Three years into term
3-Nov-2020 - Election
20-Jan-2021 - Inauguration
Click to expand...
Are you telling me

In all honesty

WE'RE NOT EVEN HALFWAY?!


#92

strawman

strawman

WE’LL GET THERE WHEN WE GET THERE!


#93

DarkAudit

DarkAudit

stienman said:
WE’LL GET THERE WHEN WE GET THERE!
Click to expand...


#94

jwhouk

jwhouk

I dunno if I can take four more years of this.


#95

PatrThom

PatrThom

jwhouk said:
I dunno if I can take four more years of this.
Click to expand...
I don't know if HE can, either. So at least there's that.

--Patrick


#96

WasabiPoptart

WasabiPoptart

He's not getting impeached. Congress won't allow it to happen. I swear every day I feel like this:



#97

PatrThom

PatrThom

WasabiPoptart said:
Congress won't allow it to happen.
Click to expand...
Congress is the only body allowed to MAKE it happen.
But yes, as long as they continue to turn a blind eye to it, it's not gonna happen.

--Patrick


#98

drawn_inward

drawn_inward

The Democrats better have a plan and an excellent candidate ready to go, and they better not fuck it up this time.


#99

Dave

Dave

drawn_inward said:
The Democrats better have a plan and an excellent candidate ready to go, and they better not fuck it up this time.
Click to expand...
They wouldn't do that again, would they?

/s


#100

GasBandit

GasBandit

Wouldn't it be hilarious* if they just ran Hillary again?


#101

PatrThom

PatrThom

GasBandit said:
Wouldn't it be hilarious* if they just ran Hillary again?
Click to expand...
At this point, they could probably even run Carter again.

--Patrick


#102

blotsfan

blotsfan

Wait I thought "having a candidate ready to go" is why trump won.

Lol trump is actually going to win because the voter rolls are gonna be purged to hell. Same reason he won in 2016.


#103

@Li3n

@Li3n

I feel like a lot of people are forgetting about the whole Weiner and Comey thing tanking her in the polls right before the vote...

Also, the years of Benghazi investigations...

Then again, knowing she's going to run is why all those things happened...

Just get someone with some charisma...


#104

GasBandit

GasBandit

They should nominate Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.


#105

blotsfan

blotsfan

GasBandit said:
They should nominate Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Click to expand...
Unfortunately she's too young.


#106

GasBandit

GasBandit

blotsfan said:
Unfortunately she's too young.
Click to expand...
We're in a post-rules society, man.


#107

PatrThom

PatrThom

Plus you know nobody will vote for a Kenyan Mexican.

—Patrick


#108

blotsfan

blotsfan

GasBandit said:
We're in a post-rules society, man.
Click to expand...
That's for republicans only.


#109

Ravenpoe

Ravenpoe

PatrThom said:
Plus you know nobody will vote for a Kenyan Mexican.

—Patrick
Click to expand...
Isn't she Puerto Rican? Or is that just Mexican to the racist right?


#110

Dave

Dave

Biden.


#111

Ravenpoe

Ravenpoe

Dave said:
Biden.
Click to expand...
As much as I like Biden, he's too old, and I don't think a good fit for president.


#112

Dave

Dave

Ravenpoe said:
As much as I like Biden, he's too old, and I don't think a good fit for president.
Click to expand...
I actually think he'd be wonderful. But the BEST thing would be:

  1. Gain a supermajority in both houses.
  2. Repeal the 22nd Amendment.
  3. Re-elect Obama.
  4. Watch as the world breathes a sigh of relief.
But that's never gonna happen, so...

Biden would be my choice. I'd like Bernie, but think he'd be an ineffectual President due to congressional gridlock. Plus we need him in the senate. Frankly, I don't know of anyone who could run for the dems and galvanize the base. Maybe Beto O'Rourke, but I wonder how well he'd resonate.


#113

GasBandit

GasBandit

Dave said:
Maybe Beto O'Rourke, but I wonder how well he'd resonate.
Click to expand...
Beto's making people nervous as fuck. I got political agencies contacting me WEEKLY asking "Is Beto spending anything there yet? How about now? How about now?" Somebody's shitting themselves in Texas 'cause of Beto.


#114

Dave

Dave

Unless he pulls a Gary Hart he might be the dem's next Big Thing.


#115

blotsfan

blotsfan

If he can get Cruz out of there, dayenu.


#116

Bubble181

Bubble181

Warren?


#117

Dave

Dave

I like her, but I think it would galvanize the right. A woman and someone who's made some dubious claims about heritage. Beto would be harder for them to rail against, which sucks that it has to be a consideration.


#118

blotsfan

blotsfan

Warren is too old. I'm sick of old people.


#119

Dave

Dave

blotsfan said:
Warren is too old. I'm sick of old people.
Click to expand...
I don't care about the age or the gender. What I care about are the policies, and Warren has the pedigree and is the left of center I think we need to offset the batshit crazy we've got on the right.


#120

PatrThom

PatrThom

blotsfan said:
Warren is too old. I'm sick of old people.
Click to expand...
5512872566_ee0e967ba9_b.jpg


prez.png


kJF7qBD.gif


--Patrick


#121

blotsfan

blotsfan

Ok, #HotTake time:

Trump is impeached before march. Not thrown out of office, but the impeachment process will be done by the house.


#122

HCGLNS

HCGLNS

I could see it so Pence becomes President when it won't count against his term limit. 10 years of Pence less a day!


#123

strawman

strawman

It's been a year since my last update:


3-Feb-2017 - Gared
8-Feb-2017 - Bert
3-Aug-2017 - Null
28-Sep-2017 - Dave
27-Oct-2017 - PatrThom
1-Dec-2017 - Denbrought
20-Jan-2018 One year into term
22-Jan-2018 - Frank
3-Mar-2018 - BananaHands
20-Apr-2018 - General Specific
15-May-2018 - blotsfan
1-Jun-2018 - Zero Esc
10-Oct-2018 - Gasbandit
5-Nov-2018 - Eriol
6-Nov-2018 - Midterm elections (poll results)
18-Dec-2018 - Siska
20-Jan-2019 Two years into term (halfway point)
29-Jan-2019 - Sparhawk
30-Jan-2019 - Timmus

Today - 84% of the guesses have passed.

9-Aug-2019 - jwhouk
17-Aug-2019 - Gruebeard

But the above two can't possibly happen (proceedings would take longer than 6 weeks, and congress doesn't meet most of August) so we've only got one possible guess left:

16-Oct-2019 - MindDetective
20-Jan-2020 Three years into term
3-Nov-2020 - Election
20-Jan-2021 - Inauguration


#124

Dei

Dei

stienman said:
It's been a year since my last update:


3-Feb-2017 - Gared
8-Feb-2017 - Bert
3-Aug-2017 - Null
28-Sep-2017 - Dave
27-Oct-2017 - PatrThom
1-Dec-2017 - Denbrought
20-Jan-2018 One year into term
22-Jan-2018 - Frank
3-Mar-2018 - BananaHands
20-Apr-2018 - General Specific
15-May-2018 - blotsfan
1-Jun-2018 - Zero Esc
10-Oct-2018 - Gasbandit
5-Nov-2018 - Eriol
6-Nov-2018 - Midterm elections (poll results)
18-Dec-2018 - Siska
20-Jan-2019 Two years into term (halfway point)
29-Jan-2019 - Sparhawk
30-Jan-2019 - Timmus

Today - 84% of the guesses have passed.

9-Aug-2019 - jwhouk
17-Aug-2019 - Gruebeard

But the above two can't possibly happen (proceedings would take longer than 6 weeks, and congress doesn't meet most of August) so we've only got one possible guess left:

16-Oct-2019 - MindDetective
20-Jan-2020 Three years into term
3-Nov-2020 - Election
20-Jan-2021 - Inauguration
Click to expand...
Calling for Impeachment itself doesn't really take weeks. Impeachment proceedings do. The act of Impeachment isn't the actual removal from office. If the House votes to impeach, then that should be it, imo.


#125

jwhouk

jwhouk

It doesn't look like it'll be anytime soon.

Knew I shoulda gone with the Nixon pick of August 9, 2022.


#126

Bubble181

Bubble181

jwhouk said:
It doesn't look like it'll be anytime soon.

Knew I shoulda gone with the Nixon pick of August 9, 2022.
Click to expand...
I picked a date in his second term and wasn't allowed :(


#127

strawman

strawman

Dei said:
Calling for Impeachment itself doesn't really take weeks. Impeachment proceedings do. The act of Impeachment isn't the actual removal from office. If the House votes to impeach, then that should be it, imo.
Click to expand...
I'm interpreting it as the date he is actually impeached, as in the house votes and the vote is successful. I don't know that it really matters, though, it seems moot right now. Still, something could happen. Further, it's "closest to" without any under/over rules, so Gruebeard's guess is the winner if the impeachment occurs before mid-september.



#128

sixpackshaker

sixpackshaker

I was disappointed that my May 2021 was not accepted.


#129

Krisken

Krisken

This is never going to end. Our nation will be perpetually stupid.


#130

strawman

strawman

We're now well past the halfway point between the @Gruebeard and @MindDetective guesses. If an impeachment vote succeeds any time between now and November 3rd, 2020 @Dave will (probably happily) award $100 to MindDetective.


#131

Dave

Dave

I won't give up $100 happily like ever. But it's all a big show. Regardless of what the house does, the senate is filled with contemptible and culpable idiots who would rather see the US burn than admit their guy is a despotic idiot hell-bent on ruining the country.


#132

Dei

Dei

You should have said removed from office instead of impeached then. :O


#133

MindDetective

MindDetective

I'll happily donate $100 to running Halforums if I win.


#134

Dave

Dave

Dei said:
You should have said removed from office instead of impeached then. :O
Click to expand...
No, I'll pay up. I'm just saying that it won't be a happy pay-up as I know it will be a pyrrhic victory.


#135

PatrThom

PatrThom

Dave said:
No, I'll pay up. I'm just saying that it won't be a happy pay-up as I know it will be a pyrrhic victory.
Click to expand...
"Yes I know the sky is red with fire and our infrastructure has collapsed and the water has been rendered undrinkable, but here's that $100 dollars I owe you."

--Patrick


#136

Bubble181

Bubble181

PatrThom said:
"Yes I know the sky is red with fire and our infrastructure has collapsed and the water has been rendered undrinkable, but here's that $100 dollars I owe you."

--Patrick
Click to expand...
...Can I get that in bottle caps please?


#137

@Li3n

@Li3n

Krisken said:
This is never going to end. Our nation will be perpetually stupid.
Click to expand...
Relax, it doesn't look like humanity will last that much longer...


#138

Krisken

Krisken

@Li3n said:
Relax, it doesn't look like humanity will last that much longer...
Click to expand...
Well, THAT'S reassuring!


#139

jwhouk

jwhouk

MindDetective said:
October 16, 2019
Click to expand...
Oops.


#140

MindDetective

MindDetective

*shrug*


#141

AshburnerX

AshburnerX

At this rate, I think whoever guessed the closest should give everyone else a hug and reassure us that it's over.


#142

Celt Z

Celt Z

I mean, if Trump gets impeached, we all win, right?

No, I'm sure it could get worse. Somehow. Possibly.


#143

PatrThom

PatrThom

Celt Z said:
I mean, if Trump gets impeached, we all win, right?
Click to expand...
Impeachment is not enough, he also needs to be removed from the office.

And won't someone please take away his phone, too.

--Patrick


#144

AshburnerX

AshburnerX

Celt Z said:
I mean, if Trump gets impeached, we all win, right?

No, I'm sure it could get worse. Somehow. Possibly.
Click to expand...
We're almost into President Pelosi territory, really. Mike Pence is less annoying but apparently just as dumb.


#145

Tress

Tress

He will not be removed from office. The impeachment process will produce jack shit, because Republicans in the Senate have already admitted as much. I'm actually more worried about making sure he's voted out in 2020, and worried that even if he is voted out he won't leave.


#146

Krisken

Krisken

Yup, Mitch is a joke (as are the other hypocrites he leads). Trump isn't wrong, he CAN shoot someone in the street and it just won't matter.


#147

figmentPez

figmentPez

Tress said:
He will not be removed from office. The impeachment process will produce jack shit, because Republicans in the Senate have already admitted as much. I'm actually more worried about making sure he's voted out in 2020, and worried that even if he is voted out he won't leave.
Click to expand...
Worried that he won't leave after being voted out? I'm worried there won't even be an election if he isn't removed from office.


#148

MindDetective

MindDetective

Given the chance, the republicans might actually benefit from ejecting Trump from office. They would be seen as standing up to their own, for one, but, more importantly, they would get President Pence. It is a risky strategy for two reasons: One is that they may piss off their own constituents and lose a primary. The other is that they would need to really ratchet up a presidential campaign for Pence, which might not be a strong campaign. That said, Trump hasn't exactly been good for the republicans and there is a (not at all admirable or selfless) path for republicans to dump Trump.


#149

HCGLNS

HCGLNS

I can see them sneak in the 25th with Pence and play the card that mental disease has taken ahold of cheeto, and we should pity him while supporting Pence as he continues the great works started cheeto.

Seriously no one can read that letter and go, yep fit for office!


#150

Bubble181

Bubble181

MindDetective said:
Given the chance, the republicans might actually benefit from ejecting Trump from office. They would be seen as standing up to their own, for one, but, more importantly, they would get President Pence. It is a risky strategy for two reasons: One is that they may piss off their own constituents and lose a primary. The other is that they would need to really ratchet up a presidential campaign for Pence, which might not be a strong campaign. That said, Trump hasn't exactly been good for the republicans and there is a (not at all admirable or selfless) path for republicans to dump Trump.
Click to expand...
Honestly though, I feel if they wanted to go that route they should've done it a bit sooner so prez Pence would have had some time to "prove" how good he is and how strong his conservative and Christian moral is. Even if Trump is impeached and removed from office before January, that doesn't leave a lot of room for Pence to achieve anything.

And it's all too late in many ways, anyway. Whatever positive will and influence the US had left anywhere i nthe world is really completely gone now. I can't see any rebel group or local insurgents or whatever trusting the US again for the next 20 or 30 years, easily. Pulling back the way Trump did was huge gift to Turkey, an even bigger gift to Russia, and an important gift to Iran. The only people really hurt are the Kurds - you know, your Best Allies In the Middle East, who were guarding your POWs, securing your air bases, and even pulled back their defenses when asked to so their enemy could march right in, and Israel, since Iran suddenly has an unopposed path to Lebanon.

If the Army was ever going to say an order was illegal or immoral, this should've been it. US troops literally left comrades they'd been fighting with shoulder-to-shoulder for years, to die. Movies will be made of this - and believe me, the "Orders are orders" military hierarchy will be the bad guys.


#151

AshburnerX

AshburnerX

MindDetective said:
Given the chance, the republicans might actually benefit from ejecting Trump from office. They would be seen as standing up to their own, for one, but, more importantly, they would get President Pence. It is a risky strategy for two reasons: One is that they may piss off their own constituents and lose a primary. The other is that they would need to really ratchet up a presidential campaign for Pence, which might not be a strong campaign. That said, Trump hasn't exactly been good for the republicans and there is a (not at all admirable or selfless) path for republicans to dump Trump.
Click to expand...
This is sort of my take on it? The longer the GOP waits to impeach and remove from office, the harder it's going to be to get a candidate out there to run against the Dem nominee. Sure, they can just say "Mike Pence was VP, so go with him" but how much impact has Pence had on the average person? At least Biden was meme worthy, for however shitty his actual politics were.


#152

GasBandit

GasBandit

AshburnerX said:
This is sort of my take on it? The longer the GOP waits to impeach and remove from office, the harder it's going to be to get a candidate out there to run against the Dem nominee. Sure, they can just say "Mike Pence was VP, so go with him" but how much impact has Pence had on the average person? At least Biden was meme worthy, for however shitty his actual politics were.
Click to expand...
Well, IIRC (granted I was 9 years old), the primary/only thing GHWB had name recognition for when he ran was that he was Reagan's VP...


#153

blotsfan

blotsfan

But Reagan was generally popular and wasn't viewed as usurping Reagan. Taking out trump loses you the trump diehards but won't get you very many new voters.


#154

PatrThom

PatrThom

Bubble181 said:
US troops literally left comrades they'd been fighting with shoulder-to-shoulder for years, to die.
Click to expand...
Not like it's the first time.

--Patrick


#155

AshburnerX

AshburnerX

blotsfan said:
But Bush was generally popular and wasn't viewed as usurping Reagan. Taking out trump loses you the trump diehards but won't get you very many new voters.
Click to expand...
Yeah, this. Trump has an entire cult of personality fueling what remains of his agenda, but who actually likes Mike Pence outside of REALLY diehard conservative Christians? Pence is not Bush Sr.


#156

jwhouk

jwhouk

Pence = "Moral Majority" Quayle.


#157

blotsfan

blotsfan

More like immoral minority amirite???


#158

Null

Null

Also, Pence is implicated in the Ukraine dealings, so he may be facing impeachment as well.


#159

PatrThom

PatrThom

Null said:
Also, Pence is implicated in the Ukraine dealings, so he may be facing impeachment as well.
Click to expand...
Double impeachment.

--Patrick


#160

jwhouk

jwhouk

I'm going to make a prediction here - not about the date of impeachment (which is looking like the vote could be sometime next week, aka 16-20 December 2019 for history's sake).

My prediction is, if the articles actually make it to the Senate floor to be voted upon, the final vote will be 42 for, 58 against.


#161

Dave

Dave

Everything will be along party line in both the house and the senate. McConnell has already said he's innocent and will be cleared in the senate. So yay for objectivity and being an impartial juror.


#162

figmentPez

figmentPez

So, Trump knows that as long as the Republicans control the Senate, that he can't be removed from office. He can do whatever he wants, and he can be impeached by the House over and over and over again, and nothing will ever come to it. What is stopping him from declaring martial law, canceling the next election, and being a dictator for life?


#163

PatrThom

PatrThom

figmentPez said:
What is stopping him from declaring martial law, canceling the next election, and being a dictator for life?
Click to expand...
A: Because he could never bring himself to do something so tyrannical.
B: Because the idea merely hasn’t occurred to him yet.
Choose only one answer.

—Patrick


#164

figmentPez

figmentPez

PatrThom said:
A: Because he could never bring himself to do something so tyrannical.
B: Because the idea merely hasn’t occurred to him yet.
Click to expand...
C: Nothing, it is going to happen.


#165

phil

phil

figmentPez said:
So, Trump knows that as long as the Republicans control the Senate, that he can't be removed from office. He can do whatever he wants, and he can be impeached by the House over and over and over again, and nothing will ever come to it. What is stopping him from declaring martial law, canceling the next election, and being a dictator for life?
Click to expand...


The plans are in motion right now.


#166

blotsfan

blotsfan

PatrThom said:
A: Because he could never bring himself to do something so tyrannical.
B: Because the idea merely hasn’t occurred to him yet.
Click to expand...
figmentPez said:
C: Nothing, it is going to happen.
Click to expand...
D: He loves campaigning. Its literally his favorite part of the job. He might overturn the results if they aren't favorable but every republican-owned state is doing their part to get rid of any pesky voters that will prevent him from claiming a legitimate victory.


#167

figmentPez

figmentPez

blotsfan said:
D: He loves campaigning. Its literally his favorite part of the job. He might overturn the results if they aren't favorable but every republican-owned state is doing their part to get rid of any pesky voters that will prevent him from claiming a legitimate victory.
Click to expand...
Hitler didn't stop giving speeches and propagandizing the crowd just because he was a dictator. Everything Trump loves about campaigning is still available to a dictator for life.


#168

PatrThom

PatrThom

This feels more to me like an extra helping of "Own The Libs." Like, the entire reason they're even talking about a third term prior to even securing the second is because country be damned, they are now just trying to find all the ways they can cause Libs to gnash their teeth.

--Patrick


#169

jwhouk

jwhouk

The appropriate response to Third Term is, “Okay, we’ll just run Obama again.”


#170

PatrThom

PatrThom

jwhouk said:
The appropriate response to Third Term is, “Okay, we’ll just run Obama again.”
Click to expand...
Heck, run Bill. Then it can be an impeach-off.

--Patrick


#171

jwhouk

jwhouk

December 18, 2019.


#172

@Li3n

@Li3n

But wait, that's only on the 1st charge: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-50840934


#173

Dave

Dave

jwhouk said:
December 18, 2019.
Click to expand...
Which means @MindDetective is the closest. @General Specific COULD have been closest, but he waffled and changed to a much earlier date.

Might have to pay this one out in installments. When I made the offer I had money. :rofl:


#174

MindDetective

MindDetective

Nah. I donate any winnings to future server hosting costs.


#175

PatrThom

PatrThom

Didn't realize Trump was in town today, campaigning.
Shame the ice and snow left over from yesterday's storm didn't also get a chance to vote.

--Patrick


#176

ScytheRexx

ScytheRexx

So word is that Pelosi is going to hold up the impeachment from the senate until after the election. She is basically doing this so that they can't acquit him before hand.

You might also know this as the Mitch Maneuver, aka, what Mitch McConnell did to Obama and Merrick Garland.

Honestly, I hate the fact that it's even happening because I hate all the precedent this shit sets for the future, but on the other hand, Mitch crying about how unfair it is being hit by a move in his own playbook, I can't help but smile a little.


#177

jwhouk

jwhouk

I'll take it.


#178

HCGLNS

HCGLNS

They are also considering more articles of impeachment. So we may have multiple winners!


#179

figmentPez

figmentPez

ScytheRexx said:
So word is that Pelosi is going to hold up the impeachment from the senate until after the election. She is basically doing this so that they can't acquit him before hand.
Click to expand...
To me this just provides more reason for Trump to attempt to cancel the 2020 elections.


#180

General Specific

General Specific

Dave said:
@General Specific COULD have been closest, but he waffled and changed to a much earlier date.
Click to expand...
Dang my.... optimism? Well, I would have donated the money back same as @MindDetective, so no worries. :)


#181

Bubble181

Bubble181

figmentPez said:
To me this just provides more reason for Trump to attempt to cancel the 2020 elections.
Click to expand...
Why cancel a certain victory? 35% votes for him, Russia gives him 10%, China gives him 10%, it'll be a landslide!


#182

Dei

Dei

Plus, the Supreme Court still has issues ongoing related to subpoenas that won't be resolved until spring.


#183

@Li3n

@Li3n



#184

jwhouk

jwhouk

So, to revive a thread - anyone win the second time around?

EDIT: after looking back at the guesses, does @MindDetective win the game twice?


#185

sixpackshaker

sixpackshaker

I had May 2021. But my guess was never put on the leader board.


#186

jwhouk

jwhouk

Then I'd say @Dave owes @sixpackshaker some money. ;)


#187

sixpackshaker

sixpackshaker

I don't want no money...


#188

DarkAudit

DarkAudit

sixpackshaker said:
I don't want no money...
Click to expand...
I'll take it. :D


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