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World War 3?

Mar 2, 2014#1

Jay

Have you guys been checking the news?

Most of you know about the political issues in Ukraine the last few months and only recently the President fled the country with the people performing a coup d'etat for good reason.

As of Friday, Russia has invaded Ukraine to take back its old territory and has been condemned by many countries. US and NATO are strongly against this action. Canada has removed its ambassador from the country and left the G8 as long as Russia is still in it it will no longer partake. Poland now has moved it's troops to its borders to prepare to give aid to its neighbor country.

Things are progressing quickly every hour.

Mar 2, 2014#2

Hailey Knight

Russia is entering to protect the ethnic Russian minority that are being attack by others in the country. Britain is assisting.

U.S. did the same thing in the late '90s with Serbia. We're hoping Russia won't commit human rights abuses, but considering what had been going on in Ukraine this past week, no one's on Ukraine's side. This is not a territory reclamation.

Have you considered employment with Fox News?

Mar 2, 2014#3

PatrThom

Heard about it. Not sure how it's going to pan out. Glad I'm across the globe, though.

--Patrick

Mar 2, 2014#4

WasabiPoptart

Zero Esc said:
no one's on Ukraine's side.

No one's on the Ukraine's side - except the US?

Reuters: an hour ago
The United States signaled on Sunday it could give as much financial support as Ukraine needs to get the crisis-hit country's economy back on track.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew, who has urged Kiev to seek assistance from the International Monetary Fund, said Washington could lend a hand either through bilateral programs or larger international institutions.

"The United States is prepared to work with its bilateral and multilateral partners to provide as much support as Ukraine needs," Lew told a conference, adding that Washington was monitoring the situation in Ukraine with "grave concern" after Russia's intervention in Ukraine's Crimea region.

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/3/2/live-blog-crisisinukraine.html

Mar 2, 2014#5

Eriol

I'd love/hate to see a comparison of Crimea to Serbia. Serbia 1914 I mean. Like around June 28, 1914. If people don't see the parallels here between all the "major powers" going to war over a small place like Serbia, and a small place like Crimea, you're insane.

The 100 year thing is just a "bonus" (if you want to call it that).

Overall, it'll probably be nothing. But that's what people thought about Ferdinand too (initially).

Mar 2, 2014#6

LittleSin

No one is going to start WW3 over Crimea. Crimea is a place that has wanted to part from Ukraine for decades. They love Russia there. I'm willing to bet dollars to donuts that some official in the region encouraged Russian intervention because they were getting no where with the Ukrainian government in getting their independence.

However, the Us throwing their support solely behind Ukraine makes me wonder if some old wounds haven't healed....

Mar 2, 2014#7

AshburnerX

LittleSin said:
No one is going to start WW3 over Crimea. Crimea is a place that has wanted to part from Ukraine for decades. They love Russia there. I'm willing to bet dollars to donuts that some official in the region encouraged Russian intervention because they were getting no where with the Ukrainian government in getting their independence.

However, the Us throwing their support solely behind Ukraine makes me wonder if some old wounds haven't healed....

This. Crimea used to be part of Russia and was put under Ukraine's administration for simplicity reasons. This was how it remained until like 20 years ago when Ukraine split off and took it with them. Pretty much everyone involved is seeing this as Russian reclaiming lost territory and won't intervene unless things get REALLY out of hand. No one is about to start WWIII over UKRAINE.

Mar 2, 2014#8

jwhouk

What I'm worried about is that the Russians will do something in retaliation for retaking Crimea.

~~Dumb American Question: where exactly IS Crimea, in relation to the Ukraine itself?~~

EDIT: Never mind. Uh, okay, I can understand the issue. Yeech.

Mar 2, 2014#9

LittleSin

Mar 2, 2014#10

bhamv3

Shamelessly copied and pasted from Reddit:

The situation from Russia's perspective:
Primarily Russia is securing the future of the Black Sea Fleet, in case the Ukrainian hardline Nationalists decide to break the treaty and take the Russian naval bases in Crimea. Base reinforcement was a preventative measure to nip any such action in the bud. Had Putin not done so and if the new Ukrainian government was foolish enough to take it by force (as some were suggesting) then there would have been an unavoidable war. Russia NEEDS warm water ports in Europe, this has been the the historical catalyst for over a dozen wars for Russia, under no circumstances will they give up their naval bases in Crimea. A show of strength is intended to show their commitment to keeping those bases. That is the bottom line of this situation, the ports must stay at all costs.
Naturally Russia is not happy with the turnout of the Ukrainian revolution. The way it sees it, a violent nationalist opposition overthrew the pro-Russian majority elected President of their close neighbor and ally. As a result a significant (ethnically and politically Russian) segment of the Ukrainian population now finds itself without due representation in government. In response Crimea, a historically and ethnically Russian region, declared autonomy from the "usurper" government in Kiev. A new government that through both action and rhetoric has shown that it is both volatile and not opposed to using violence to silence its pro-Russian opposition, something that they themselves condemned when it suited them. The Crimean administration has requested Russian troops stationed in Ukraine for protection from an otherwise likely attempts by the Kiev government to violently put down the Crimean revolt until the situation stabilizes.
Now this is where the situation could have got messy. A pro-Russian"wannabe" breakaway state (at least on paper), with a majority ethnically Russian populace, being threatened with violence right on Russia's own doorstep. The situation is starting to mirror the lead up to the 2008 Russian-Georgian war. However Russia has learned from that conflict and has altered their preventative doctrine accordingly. Instead of waiting for Ukraine to attack Crimea and then inevitably counterattacking, Russia laid out its cards on the table by deploying their forces within and outside of Ukrain. Through doing so they hope to cower the Ukrainian government into inaction and avoiding war in the process.
Neither side wants a war. The only way it could happen is through rash and foolish action undertaken by volatile elements in an attempt to get an easy win where there is none. In 2008 South Ossetia looked like an "easy win" for Georgia and many paid dearly for that illusion. If prior to troop mobilization Sevastopol and other Crimean bases looked "easy" then now they most certainly do not. Using Russian troops for protection of key points of infrastructure such as the Simferopol airport only strengthens their ability to protect the interests of Russia and the Crimean people.
Russia is being very cautious in how it chooses to proceed. So far Russia is following the existing treaties to the letter. No breach of any kind has so far taken place, despite all the media sensationalism. Note that pre-Duma approval, the troops defending the Simferopol airport intentionally don't have magazines in their rifles and no armour has been deployed, their presence around the airport in the current manner does not legally constitute an act of aggression or occupation. They are legally there as an informal peace keeping force. Russian troops are present around the airport, but officially they are not the ones controlling it, the Crimeans are running the show, at least on paper. The Russian troops are currently there in a role of an enabling shield, not a sword. Russian bases have been reinforced within the levels permitted by the 1994 treaty and their troop movements both within and outside of Ukraine are legally in the clear. Russia is taking every step to ensure that they are toeing the line of international laws and treaties.
Although Putin has obtained Duma's approval to deploy troops in Ukraine, so far it is held as a chip to strengthen the Russian position. A chip that has not been cashed in. Doing so without Ukrainian provocation would undermine the Russian position. Russia already has over 20,000 troops legally present within Ukraine. Double the force that was used to defeat Georgia.
In essence this tells us several things about Russian intention:
1) Such caution is not indicative of a country that set out to illegally annex Ukraine. Even without warnings from Western Powers such action would have made no sense for Russia.
2) Russia aims to remove Ukraine's ability to silence the Crimean opposition by force, by legally deploying troops around key Crimean access points and reinforcing their bases Russia is placing their own forces as a buffer between the pro-Russian Crimean opposition and potential use of Ukrainian forces to regain control of Crimea. A Russian show of strength on Ukrainian border is meant to signal to Ukraine that trying to force Russia out of Crimea will have serious consequences. The potential for Russia to instantly pour pre-approved troops into Ukraine further leverages Kiev away from seeking a military resolution.
3) Without the option to use force Ukraine will have to rely solely diplomatic means in order to negotiate with the Crimean opposition. This is greatly advantageous to Russia, the heavy pro-Russian sentiment of the population forms a Win-Win-Win scenario with the following outcomes:
WIN 1: Russia get to use its political leverage over Crimea to ensure that the Black Sea Fleet stays in Crimea in return for facilitating the reintegration of Crimea into Ukraine.
+
WIN 2: In doing so Crimean and other pro-Russian views will have to be represented within the new government, thus Russia regains a portion of its political influence in Ukraine.
or
Win 3: Crimea agrees to split away from Ukraine following the March referendum, joining Russia as a fully or semi-autonomous region.
Russia has its foot in the door, thus Ukraine is forced to respect the rights of the Crimean people. The only way Russia loses out is if Ukraine attacks, in that event everyone loses. Russia has been trying to prevent that from happening by flexing muscles to show that any such attack would be suicide.
tl,dr: Russia wants to keep the naval bases in Ukraine as the bottom line, protect the ethnic Russian population and to force the Ukrainian government to seek diplomatic solution in regard to Crimea. Through doing so they either regain some of their political influence within the new Ukrainian government or gain control of Crimea outright. All without firing a single shot.

Mar 2, 2014#11

Hailey Knight

WasabiPoptart said:
No one's on the Ukraine's side - except the US?

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/3/2/live-blog-crisisinukraine.html

Goddammit, my country. Fucking hell.

Mar 2, 2014#12

LittleSin

Like I said, man.

I think certain folks in the US still have an axe to grind with Russia.

Mar 2, 2014#13

jwhouk

The best equivalent for US minds would be if pro-Colombian forces were to suddenly seize the Panama Canal Zone.

EDIT: For that reason alone, I'm thinking Kerry better start getting the diplomatic solution into high gear, pronto.

Mar 2, 2014#14

ThatNickGuy

LittleSin said:
Like I said, man.

I think certain folks in the US still have an axe to grind with Russia.

That was my thinking. It sounds like they were just looking for an excuse to start some shit.

See also: Iraq, Iran, possibly North Korea. Though I don't think the U.S. really gives two fucks about North Korea.

Mar 2, 2014#15

LittleSin

ThatNickGuy said:
That was my thinking. It sounds like they were just looking for an excuse to start some shit.

See also: Iraq, Iran, possibly North Korea. Though I don't think the U.S. really gives two fucks about North Korea.

Does anyone care about NK? Not much anyone can do it about as the leadership is bat shit. You can;t reason with crazy so better to leave them alone until something majour happens.

Mar 2, 2014#16

Cheesy1

Or until some has-been liquored-up NBA player goes there and stirs up shit.

Mar 2, 2014#17

ThatNickGuy

Cheesy1 said:
Or until some has-been liquored-up NBA player goes there and stirs up shit.

Hey, you leave Wayne Gretsky out of this!

...wait, no. Geez, I really need to learn more about sports.

Mar 2, 2014#18

bhamv3

ThatNickGuy said:
Hey, you leave Wayne Gretsky out of this!

...wait, no. Geez, I really need to learn more about sports.

Yeah man, Gretzky was a baseball player with the Green Bay Mariners. Holds the record for the most sacks on the attacking midfielders in a single season. Get it right, man!

Mar 2, 2014#19

WasabiPoptart

LittleSin said:
Like I said, man.

I think certain folks in the US still have an axe to grind with Russia.

From what I'm reading it's isn't Russia as much as it is Putin himself. Which makes no sense IMO.

Mar 2, 2014#20

Reverent-one

Zero Esc said:
Goddammit, my country. Fucking hell.

It's not like it's just the US. Also from LittleSin's link:

President Obama spoke separately this afternoon with Prime Minister Cameron of the United Kingdom, President Komorowski of Poland, and Chancellor Merkel of Germany. The leaders expressed their grave concern over Russia’s clear violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity, which is a breach of international law and a threat to international peace and security. The leaders stressed that dialogue between Ukraine and Russia should start immediately, with international facilitation as appropriate.

The leaders affirmed the importance of unity within the international community in support of international law and their support for the Government of Ukraine, including its territorial integrity and its efforts to move forward with elections in May so that the Ukrainian people can continue to determine their own future in this historic hour. The leaders also pledged to work together on a package of multilateral and bilateral financial assistance to help Ukraine as it pursues urgently needed reforms to stabilize its economy. The leaders agreed to continue to coordinate closely, including bilaterally, and through appropriate international organizations.

The President reaffirmed the United States’ longstanding and continuing commitment to security and democracy in Eastern Europe.

Sounds like there's a lot of countries not happy with Russia here.

Mar 3, 2014#21

jwhouk

Poland and Germany especially, due to proximity.

Mar 3, 2014#22

Grytpipe-Thynne

Zero, you seem to indicate that Britain is helping Russia. This has not been the case.

Mar 3, 2014#23

Hailey Knight

Grytpipe-Thynne said:
Zero, you seem to indicate that Britain is helping Russia. This has not been the case.

Yes, that was much earlier in the thread. Would you like request that I edit my post to reflect the information posted later by other members?

Mar 3, 2014#24

jwhouk

Meanwhile, Venezuela's not exactly a model of stability.

So much for Carnival.

Mar 3, 2014#25

Hailey Knight

jwhouk said:
Meanwhile, Venezuela's not exactly a model of stability.

So much for Carnival.

Hey, look. That country in turmoil has oil.

Time to help people with their freedom.

(Honestly, Venezuela kept me distracted from Ukraine this past week.)

Mar 3, 2014#26

Eriol

The thing that "gets" me here is how much (from first glance at least) that Crimea resembles Tibet. Don't see the parallels? Here's a breakdown for you. Thank you wikipedia.

Crimea was conquered by Russia in 1783 - Tibet was conquered by China in 1951 - Both regions beside a much more powerful neighbor get invaded and 100% dominated politically.
In 1945 Stalin deports the indigenous Crimean Tartar majority and moves in Russians - China has been moving people INTO Tibet ever since they conquered it, and if they've been deporting as well, please post that. It wouldn't surprise me, but I have no specific knowledge.
Decades later, when the political situation has changed, Crimea is loyal to Russia, as they are now majority Russian - Decades later, Tibet can never be its own nation again, as the majority of the people are not "traditionally" from Tibet.

It's a nasty little strategy that requires dominating a region for decades, but DOES work because later how do people call for independence when they're no longer the majority? It's worse because many of the people the "traditional people" are speaking out against, were born there. Your country is basically forever after gone and subject to the larger nation/empire. How many other examples throughout history have done the same where a large nation expands control this way?

Mar 3, 2014#27

GasBandit

Eriol said:
It's a nasty little strategy that requires dominating a region for decades

Actually, the American southwest can attest that the "domination" part is optional.

Mar 3, 2014#28

Dave

All I know is that Poland is really freaking out right now and Czechoslovakia is making parallels between the actions of Putin's Russia and Hitler's Germany.

And the US just can't win. If we go in, we're using our Western influence and getting involved in another foreign conflict. If we do nothing we are weak and Obama is weak. Seriously, nothing the US does will be the right thing to do.

And my son is now in the Army in a combat field.

Mar 3, 2014#29

SpecialKO

Dave said:
All I know is that Poland is really freaking out right now and Czechoslovakia is making parallels between the actions of Putin's Russia and Hitler's Germany.

Yeah, this is the problem. Even if you give Russia the greatest possible benefit of the doubt, what they're doing is ticking every mental checkbox every single country in that region has for "shit is about to fall on us in the form of someone else's tanks".

Mar 3, 2014#30

Eriol

Dave said:
And my son is now in the Army in a combat field.

Oh don't worry. If it's Russia & China vs NATO, it won't matter. Everybody has nukes. With those, being a civilian vs military doesn't matter much.

I wish that came off less gallows humour, but I guess that's what it is, so "meh." It's not a "nice" topic.

Mar 3, 2014#31

Mathias

LittleSin said:
No one is going to start WW3 over Crimea. Crimea is a place that has wanted to part from Ukraine for decades. They love Russia there. I'm willing to bet dollars to donuts that some official in the region encouraged Russian intervention because they were getting no where with the Ukrainian government in getting their independence.

However, the Us throwing their support solely behind Ukraine makes me wonder if some old wounds haven't healed....

World War I started over the assassination of one archduke.

Mar 3, 2014#32

LittleSin

Mathias said:
World War I started over the assassination of one archduke.

True, true. I'm just hoping that modern information gathering and speeding communication prevent something like that, you know?

Also

Mar 3, 2014#33

AshburnerX

Mathias said:
World War I started over the assassination of one archduke.

I'm more like WWI started because of a series of treaties, partnerships, and co-defense packs that obligated all the countries involved to fight it out or lose all credibility in the world. The death of the archduke was simply the first domino in a long chain of stupid decisions.

Mar 3, 2014#34

Charlie Don't Surf

AshburnerX said:
I'm more like WWI started because of a series of treaties, partnerships, and co-defense packs that obligated all the countries involved to fight it out or lose all credibility in the world. The death of the archduke was simply the first domino in a long chain of stupid decisions.

The Archduke was the flick after Europe set up the dominoes for years.

Mar 4, 2014#35

Eriol

Russia's gonna win this one for one simple reason: "They realized that to be in power, you didn't need guns or money or even numbers. You just needed the will to do what the other guy wouldn't." - Kaiser Soze

Except that in this case they HAVE the guns AND the numbers AND the will to use them. Everybody else won't. Russia wins.

The only way this changes IMO is if people even talk about something more than economic sanctions. Then things might change. Otherwise, it's all just talk. Talk didn't stop the USSR in Hungary in 1956, didn't stop them doing whatever the hell they wanted in Afghanistan in the 1980s, and didn't stop their most heinous act, the Holodomor- an artificial famine in Ukraine (yes, the SAME Ukraine) that killed over 7.5 MILLION people in 1932-33. I don't expect any different here in terms of what Russia will/won't do. They'll do whatever the hell they want in anything they perceive as "their" sphere of influence until somebody at least puts guns on the table.

But we won't, because we're all (rightly) afraid of nuclear war. So Crimea will be theirs.

Mar 4, 2014#36

GasBandit

Seems a good place to (re)post this.

Mar 4, 2014#37

Eriol

Sorry for being so proud to be on that chart.

Mar 4, 2014#38

GasBandit

Mar 4, 2014#39

GasBandit

Mar 4, 2014#40

GasBandit

What a difference a month makes.

Mar 4, 2014#41

Charlie Don't Surf

thanks for summing up this incredibly complex geopolitical issue with those cool image macros from reddit[DOUBLEPOST=1393965963,1393965718][/DOUBLEPOST]

Charlie Don't Surf said:
thanks for summing up this incredibly complex geopolitical issue with those cool image macros from reddit

sorry, can't let it go, that one with all the "good" countries being white people is just fucking precious

Mar 4, 2014#42

GasBandit

Charlie Don't Surf said:
thanks for summing up this incredibly complex geopolitical issue with those cool image macros from reddit

*imgur. A thin division, I know, but it's there.

sorry, can't let it go, that one with all the "good" countries being white people is just fucking precious

TIL: There are no non-white people in Canada, the UK, or the USA, and Russians are apparently not white, despite the Caucasus mountains (from which the term Caucasian originates) being in Russia.

Mar 4, 2014#43

SpecialKO

I can think of a few people for whom Germany's established non-whiteness would have been a big surprise.

Mar 4, 2014#44

GasBandit

SpecialKO said:
I can think of a few people for whom Germany's established non-whiteness would have been a big surprise.

Well, to be fair, he was griping that the good countries were all white, not that all the white countries were good. I threw in russia in my rebuttal to show also that there was an "evil" "white" country.

Mar 4, 2014#45

DarkAudit

Mar 6, 2014#46

GasBandit

So I shared that alignment pic in "User Created" on imgur, and it got a few replies, about 20k views over the course of a day.

Then apparently somebody crossposted it to reddit.

WAASSCHHWOOOOMF. Sits now at 250k views and a whooole lot of butthurt russians in the comments.

Wonder where on reddit exactly it got posted, I couldn't find it.

Mar 6, 2014#47

jwhouk

Someone wanna check how Sarajevo's doing?

Mar 6, 2014#48

Bubble181

The Crimean Parlaiment has now voted to detach itself completely from the rest of Ukrain and attach itself to Russia as a semi-autonomous region.
This is expected to be ratified by the March 16th referendum.

There are no especially "good" or "bad" sides in this conflict -as Bhamv has pointed out, many of Russia's deployment of troops seems to be with the express interest of avoiding war or civil war by a show of strength. So far, there have been quite a few deaths by the Ukrainian polcie and army (nominally under "Western" control, though mostly still fall-out from the more Russia-minded president) - none from Russian troops.

What I find telling is that, despite 10 years having passed, this new Mid-European conflict immediately showcases the exact same "New Europe" vs "old Europe" conflict of opinions/interest as Iraq did. "New" Europe, being "liberated USSR territory" mostly, is heavily on America's side and is practically asking to abandon all diplomacy and just send "support" troops. That's the Baltic states, Poland, Czechia, Slovenia, Slovakia,... The "old" European countries are the historically war-torn and "war fatigued" countries - Italy, France, Belgium, Spain, etc. Sad to see how little our Eastern allies have changed - though it goes to prove my point we should never have expanded the EU so heavily Eastwards, but have them set up a separate identity.

Mar 6, 2014#49

WasabiPoptart

The U.S. Navy announced a guided-missile destroyer, the USS Truxton, was heading to the Black Sea in what it said was a long-planned training exercise and not a show of force.

BAHAHAHA! Oh I have heard that song and dance a few times.

Mar 6, 2014#50

sixpackshaker

Wow, the paint is barely dry on that ship.

Mar 6, 2014#51

GasBandit

Mar 6, 2014#52

GasBandit

In the Ukrianian cities of Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa, Sevastopil, and Simferopil, there have been reports on the Russian news channels of "pro-Russian activists" speaking out about how they "feel threatened by the neo-Nazi fascists in Ukraine" etc. These reports were broadcasted all over the Russian news.

Mar 6, 2014#53

SpecialKO

Wait, really?!

Mar 6, 2014#54

jwhouk

"Well, Minister Goebellski, you can clearly see our propoganda worked..."

Mar 7, 2014#55

Jay

Canada just forced all 9 Russian soldiers training in Canada to GTFO.

All 9.

BALL MAN

Mar 7, 2014#56

Fun Size

Well, to be fair they really just politely asked them to leave.

Mar 7, 2014#57

Officer_Charon

No, they did it sternly.

They said "We respectfully request that you pack up and board the next flight convenient to you."

Mar 7, 2014#58

SpecialKO

Followed immediately by, "if you don't get upgrade status, do let us know, and we'll make sure the airline understands. Don't forget your hot towels!".

Mar 7, 2014#59

Gilgamesh

SpecialKO said:
Don't forget your hot towels!".

Mar 12, 2014#60

GasBandit

Mar 12, 2014#61

Gilgamesh

GasBandit said:

Holy hell this one killed me.

Mar 14, 2014#62

sixpackshaker

The GOP has my head spinning with, don't attack Libya, Syria, Yemen... Oh Obama's weak because he won't attack Russia!

Mar 14, 2014#63

GasBandit

sixpackshaker said:
The GOP has my head spinning with, don't attack Libya, Syria, Yemen... Oh Obama's weak because he won't attack Russia!

As bad an idea as getting into armed conflict with russia is, at least Ukraine is a sovereign nation invaded by a recognized foreign state with a uniformed military, as opposed to being a "no good guys all bad guys" civil war.

But it's clear to anyone looking at the situation that Russia, despite having de facto invaded Ukraine on the flimsiest of pretexts, is probably going to get away with it because nobody wants to get the Cold War back out of the storage freezer in the garage and stick it in the microwave. The fact of the matter is, because they've got their finger on the oil spigot for most of europe, Russia can do anything it wants, short of invading a NATO member country. They may get some economic sanctions out of this, but that's temporary compared to the eternal thirst Russia has for warm-water ports.

Mar 14, 2014#64

sixpackshaker

I am just amazed that Gorby let Ukraine keep Crimea, because treating Ukraine as an independent nation was a Cold War ruse to give the Soviets more votes on the Security Council. Slogging it out in Russia is against everyone's best interest.

Mar 22, 2014#65

sixpackshaker

Since Russia broke the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty it had with Ukraine, Ukraine wants to repeal the treaty and work up some more nuclear weapons.

Kyiv, March 21 (Interfax-Ukraine) – MPs of the Batkivschyna and UDAR factions have submitted to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine a draft law on the denunciation of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty dated July 1, 1968.
MP Serhiy Kaplin of the UDAR faction, MP Valentyn Koroliuk and MP Oleksandr Chornovolenko (both of the Batkivschyna faction) submitted the draft law on the denunciation of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty to parliament on Thursday.

The lawmakers suggest the denunciation of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and the preparation of a program to resume the nuclear status of Ukraine in connection with the military aggression against Ukraine by the Russian Federation, which is supposed to be a guarantor of the country's territorial integrity, according to the text of the bill posted on the Web site of the Verkhovna Rada.

On November 16, 1994, the Ukrainian parliament passed a law "On the Ukrainian Accession to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty of July 1, 1968" with some reservations, which said the threat to use force or the use of force against the Ukrainian territorial integrity, the inviolability of its borders and political independence by any nuclear power, same as the economic pressure aiming at subordinating Ukrainian sovereign rights to their interests "would be regarded by Ukraine as extraordinary circumstances endangering its supreme interests."

The law took effect after nuclear powers extended security guarantees to Ukraine with a relevant international treaty.

The Budapest Memorandum, an international treaty of Ukraine, the United States, Russia and the United Kingdom, was signed on December 5, 1994, to provide security guarantees in the context of the Ukrainian accession to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The treaty was to guarantee Ukrainian sovereignty and security.

Mar 22, 2014#66

GasBandit

"I'll be down to see you in the fallout shelter, baby.
Civil Defense with you seems mighty grand.
Just in case we're here to stay,
I got 13 cases of Perrier.
Don't go down to the fallout shelter with anyone else but me."

Mar 22, 2014#67

DarkAudit

GasBandit said:
"I'll be down to see you in the fallout shelter, baby.
Civil Defense with you seems mighty grand.
Just in case we're here to stay,
I got 13 cases of Perrier.
Don't go down to the fallout shelter with anyone else but me."

I see you, and raise you...

Mar 22, 2014#68

Frank

I don't think anything is creepier to me or makes me want to not go on the internet more than the fetishization of Crimea's Attorney General.

Jesus Fucking Christ internet, get your lives together.

Mar 22, 2014#69

bhamv3

Frank said:
I don't think anything is creepier to me or makes me want to not go on the internet more than the fetishization of Crimea's Attorney General.

Jesus Fucking Christ internet, get your lives together.

She's definitely attractive, but yeah, this is a bit much.

Mar 22, 2014#70

GasBandit

Don't worry, give it a few weeks, and they'll latch on to the next shiny thing.

Meanwhilst...

Mar 23, 2014#71

PatrThom

stienman said:

--Patrick

Mar 30, 2014#72

DarkAudit

If this happens, it's all over except the mutant horde.

Putin Wants to Regain Finland (The Independent)

Mar 30, 2014#73

AshburnerX

DarkAudit said:
If this happens, it's all over except the mutant horde.

Putin Wants to Regain Finland (The Independent)

This is where @North_Ranger would have pointed out how that worked SO GREAT for them last time...

Mar 30, 2014#74

Bubble181

DarkAudit said:
If this happens, it's all over except the mutant horde.

Putin Wants to Regain Finland (The Independent)

Wrong article is wrong. "Finland is not a Nato member, meaning a Russian invasion would not be considered an attack against the alliance." is false. Since Finland has joined the EU, it is protected by NATO, since the EU itself is also an official military defensive alliance. Attacking Finland would force the UK and France to declare war on Russia and thus drag in the rest of NATO - and while they may not have many nukes, they have enough to level Moscow.

Also, the guy claiming it was Putin's advisor until 2005, before running off to Washington. I'm not inclined to put much faith in hiswords about what his former master wants or does.

Mar 30, 2014#75

Cheesy1

AshburnerX said:
This is where @North_Ranger would have pointed out how that worked SO GREAT for them last time...

Mar 30, 2014#76

ThatNickGuy

I miss North Ranger.

Mar 31, 2014#77

Espy

ThatNickGuy said:
I miss North Ranger.

Me too dude. Seeing his avatar pop up in that 2048 game made me tear up.

Mar 31, 2014#78

Dave

Espy said:
Me too dude. Seeing his avatar pop up in that 2048 game made me tear up.

It made me smile. He'll always be remembered as long as we are here.

Apr 4, 2014#79

ThatNickGuy

McDonald's Temporary Closes Crimea Locations

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-26882704?SThisFB

Awwwww shit, son! It's on, now!

May 10, 2014#80

DarkAudit

It's Eurovision Song Contest tonight. Russia and Ukraine both made the final.
:popcorn:

Jul 17, 2014#81

DarkAudit

Well FUCK.

http://news.sky.com/story/1302864/malaysian-plane-shot-down-with-295-on-board

CNN is reporting Russia did it.

Jul 17, 2014#82

GasBandit

It's 1983 all over again.

Jul 17, 2014#83

SpecialKO

You know it's a bad fucking situation when the best case scenario is that it is a horrible coincidence of an accident.

Jul 17, 2014#84

Dave

I'm very, very worried about any American involvement. Not for me. For my son. You know, the one in the Army in an infantry division? As a former military myself you always know that's a possibility, but you still hope for the best.

Guess the warhawks will get their wish even if it's not exactly what they anticipated.

Jul 17, 2014#85

GasBandit

I don't think this will be the trigger that starts off a war. It'll be another drop in the bucket, considering Russia basically has military in plainclothes in among the Ukraine separatists to make them more effective/prod them onward.

Jul 17, 2014#86

DarkAudit

GasBandit said:
It's 1983 all over again.

The days where we were certain the nukes would be flying before Ronnie left office.

Jul 17, 2014#87

GasBandit

Jul 17, 2014#88

Charlie Don't Surf

This is the thread I least like to see bumped.

Jul 17, 2014#89

chris

Right now nothing is clear, everything is just speculation. The only confirmed information is that flight MH17 started in Amsterdam and crashed on its way to Kuala Lumpur in East Ukarine.

Jul 17, 2014#90

Eriol

This one depends so much on the height of the airplane.

Below a certain height: could be rebels w/o support. Shoulder-mounted, etc. Or on approach to landing
Above a certain height: You need "real military" level hardware to even know there's a plane there to fire at. Which means Ukraine's military (unlikely IMO, but I do have bias), or rebels that have been supplied by a country, ie: Russia.

Given the circumstances, I'm thinking scenario 2, with Russia. Which means even if they aren't on the ground (ya right, they are) their hardware is there for sure. They're supplying the rebels. Which is VERY bad for international relations, but IMO it won't change anything, because nobody's going to help Ukraine. If people were going to, they already would have. Nobody's willing to piss off Russia that much, because of their energy (Europe NEEDS it), and their nukes (why do you think Iran, and many others, want nukes? You are afraid to ACTUALLY deal with them then).

Sorry Ukraine.

Jul 17, 2014#91

Zappit

More sanctions on Russia, but that's about the most aggressive reaction we'll see.

Jul 17, 2014#92

GasBandit

stienman said:
It'll depend on how many US and EU citizens died on the flight.

I know what you're driving at - that western civilization only acts when it is directly affected. And you're right. But even if every last person on that plane was American, I don't think we'd end up doing more than sanctions, because in 6 short years we've gone from being the bull in the china shop everybody's afraid of to the paper tiger nobody takes seriously.

Jul 17, 2014#93

sixpackshaker

Israel just moved against the Gaza Strip... crazy day.

Jul 17, 2014#94

GasBandit

Hamas military wing al-Qassam brigades in text message: 'We've been eagerly awaiting this ground operation to teach the Israelis a lesson' - @sangwonyoon

If there's one thing the Palestinians have never been short on, it's baseless confidence.

Jul 17, 2014#95

GasBandit

stienman said:
[DOUBLEPOST=1405630041,1405629986][/DOUBLEPOST]Though the administration made a lot of interesting assertions that later were proven false during benghazi, so I suppose we can take Biden's statements with some salt.

Eh, this isn't a CYA situation, so I'm more inclined to believe him, here.

Jul 17, 2014#96

GasBandit

The Ukranian intelligence agency now says it has phone intercept recordings of separatists saying they have shot down a civilian plane.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukr...pped-conversation-full-transcript-356545.html

Jul 17, 2014#97

GasBandit

Now THAT smells like a CYA situation.

Jul 17, 2014#98

Krisken

Oh goodie, Moscow will report on this. I'm sure THAT will be an accurate, unbiased report.

Jul 17, 2014#99

PatrThom

--Patrick

Jul 17, 2014#100

Jay

The fuck is this guy

Jul 17, 2014#101

Espy

Hahahahahahaha I just got it.

Jul 17, 2014#102

Telephius

I think I got it, though in a weird way. I didn't know who the guy was visually until I gathered what the last half of the joke was supposed to be.

Jul 17, 2014#103

bhamv3

Not getting it at all.

Jul 18, 2014#104

Eriol

stienman said:
The Obama administration is claiming that Ukraine doesn't have the capability to have shot mh17 down.

A roundabout way of blaming Russia, since they are also claiming that it was indeed a surface to air missile that brought the plane down.

From a National Post article:

Igor Sutyagin, a research fellow in Russian studies at the Royal United Services Institute, said both Ukrainian and Russian forces have SA-17 missile systems – also known as Buk ground-to-air launcher systems.
Rebels had bragged recently about having acquired Buk systems.

As much as I do believe Russia supplies the rebels (both material and personnel in plainclothes) this does throw a decent amount of doubt into it, since it's possible the Rebels captured such a system from the Ukrainians, if one was in that region to begin with. But there's no reason for the Ukrainians to be using them in this conflict, since the rebels don't have airplanes, at all. So the most likely culprit is the Rebels, thinking they were shooting down a Ukrainian plane. Despite all their other crap, the Russians aren't stupid enough to actually fire as much as a bullet from their side of the border.

Jul 18, 2014#105

Dave

bhamv3 said:
Not getting it at all.

Nor I.[DOUBLEPOST=1405687377,1405687275][/DOUBLEPOST]Never mind. I did a reverse lookup for the picture of the dude. He's the Situation. So the pictures together are:

Tents Situation.

So....yeah.

Jul 18, 2014#106

Charlie Don't Surf

congrats on a really bad, incomprehensible joke

Jul 18, 2014#107

AshburnerX

The Russians are trying to claim that this was an attempt on Putin's life, claiming his plane was in the area. Nevermind that the Ukrainian military wouldn't have access to that information, even if it was true.

Jul 18, 2014#108

ThatNickGuy

AshburnerX said:
The Russians are trying to claim that this was an attempt on Putin's life, claiming his plane was in the area. Nevermind that the Ukrainian military wouldn't have access to that information, even if it was true.

"See, guys? IT TOTALLY WASN'T US."

Jul 18, 2014#109

Bubble181

Everybody's throwing out lots of accusations all over the place. We'll have to wait 'till the dust settles, and even so. Could still be either side, on purpose or a fringe group overstepping bounds, or a foreign group infiltrating to destabilize. Lord knows IS would love Europe and America to focus fully on Ukraine and leave Israel and Iraq to calmly implode on their own, and they've got BUKs too.

Jul 18, 2014#110

Dave

If it's anyone but the separatists I'd be terribly surprised.

Jul 18, 2014#111

GasBandit

I know I say it over and over, but here it rings true again: Russia - always the villain of the world, or in bed with whoever is.

Jul 18, 2014#112

Espy

ThatNickGuy said:
"See, guys? IT TOTALLY WASN'T US."

"We weren't even home! How could be us?"

Jul 18, 2014#113

PatrThom

Charlie Don't Surf said:
congrats on a really bad, incomprehensible joke

You're welcome!

GasBandit said:
I know I say it over and over, but here it rings true again: Russia - always the villain of the world, or in bed with whoever is.

Passion.

--Patrick

Jul 18, 2014#114

GasBandit

PatrThom said:
Passion.

--Patrick

Oh, Russia's not crazy, just corrupt and power hungry. They're going about this in a very savvy fashion, mostly using proxies to perpetrate their will and make it difficult to prove they're involved, when all circumstantial evidence shows they clearly are the puppetmaster here.

Jul 18, 2014#115

PatrThom

GasBandit said:
Oh, Russia's not crazy

I wasn't implying that Russia was the crazy one, just that Russia sure does seem to spend a lot of time courting the crazy ones.

--Patrick

Jul 18, 2014#116

PatrThom

I am imagining some of the dialogue like it's from a cheesy 90's movie.
"So if some of our people just happen to be in the area, and some of our equipment just happens to fall into the hands of the rebels..."

--Patrick

Jul 18, 2014#117

Frank

Apparently all the bodies found at the scene of the plane crash were dead long before the plane took off and were drained of blood.

Says Ukraine rebel commander.

http://globalnews.ca/news/1459910/plane-victims-long-dead-not-fresh-says-pro-russia-rebel-commander/

Jul 18, 2014#118

Ravenpoe

Frank said:
Apparently all the bodies found at the scene of the plane crash were dead long before the plane took off and were drained of blood.

Says Ukraine rebel commander.

http://globalnews.ca/news/1459910/plane-victims-long-dead-not-fresh-says-pro-russia-rebel-commander/

Wait... Do they watch Sherlock?

Jul 18, 2014#119

ScytheRexx

I knew it! The whole thing was a ploy put into motion by the vampires. HOW DEVIOUS!

Jul 18, 2014#120

sixpackshaker

Frank said:
Apparently all the bodies found at the scene of the plane crash were dead long before the plane took off and were drained of blood.

Says Ukraine rebel commander.

http://globalnews.ca/news/1459910/plane-victims-long-dead-not-fresh-says-pro-russia-rebel-commander/

Great, now the Russians are messing with dead bodies.

Jul 18, 2014#121

GasBandit

Frank said:
Apparently all the bodies found at the scene of the plane crash were dead long before the plane took off and were drained of blood.

Says Ukraine rebel commander.

http://globalnews.ca/news/1459910/plane-victims-long-dead-not-fresh-says-pro-russia-rebel-commander/

They can't seriously believe we'd even stand a chance of believing that malarky, do they?

Jul 18, 2014#122

ScytheRexx

Time Traveling Vampires!?

We are doomed!

Jul 18, 2014#123

AshburnerX

This has to be a joke. The sheer amount of effort it would take to get the plane, acquire the dead bodies, plant the dead bodies, and then getting the plane into Ukrainian airspace without anyone catching on would be ludicrous and it would be FOR NO REASON. They could alter the manifest, but then that would require the complicit co-operation of Air Malaysia and the airport... but we'd find out those bodies couldn't have come from the departure.

This is just insane.

Jul 18, 2014#124

AshburnerX

Russian civilians leaving flowers at the Dutch Embassey, along with messages asking for forgiveness for their government's actions.

There was a time when the Russians would have a revolution over this kind of thing. Still, it just goes to show that Russia's attempts to fool the world are so bad that even Russians don't believe it.

Jul 19, 2014#125

AshburnerX

Russian television reporter quits job over crash coverage, admits the Kremlin has payed them to lie on the air repeatedly over the years.

Jul 19, 2014#126

redthirtyone

Frank said:
Apparently all the bodies found at the scene of the plane crash were dead long before the plane took off and were drained of blood.

Says Ukraine rebel commander.

http://globalnews.ca/news/1459910/plane-victims-long-dead-not-fresh-says-pro-russia-rebel-commander/

That is some devious Simon Phoenix kinda bullshit right there

Jul 19, 2014#127

WasabiPoptart

Ravenpoe said:
Wait... Do they watch Sherlock?

I think they must have read the first book of The Strain.

Jul 19, 2014#128

SpecialKO

WasabiPoptart said:
I think they must have read the first book of The Strain.

Or just watched the first TV episode.

Jul 19, 2014#129

Dave

They are actively looting the bodies and items from the crash.

This whole thing is such a clusterfuck it's unbelievable.

Jul 19, 2014#130

Jay

Savages

Jul 19, 2014#131

Hailey Knight

Jay said:
Savages

This.

Jul 19, 2014#132

PatrThom

Dave said:
They are actively looting the bodies and items from the crash.

Last night I sent in a report about a trailer off to the side of the road in the night ('cuz it's around a curve and hard to see in the dark). I got a response from someone else on the same highway that basically said, "Yeah! I saw it, too. Just two perfectly good jet-skis sitting there. I might've stopped for them but my car doesn't have a hitch."
People surprise me less and less, and I really wish it were otherwise.

--Patrick

Jul 19, 2014#133

AshburnerX

Considering how crappy life is in Ukraine, I really don't blame these people for taking advantage of this. Is it wrong? Yes. But I'd probably do the same in their situation.

Jul 19, 2014#134

Jay

The vice report on this was awesome.

Jul 19, 2014#135

Dave

And scary sad.

Jul 20, 2014#136

Jax

A nephew of a colleague of mine was on that plane. He was only 18 years old..

Jul 20, 2014#137

jwhouk

We lost a bunch of AIDS researchers on that plane as well.

Jul 20, 2014#138

PatrThom

jwhouk said:
We lost a bunch of AIDS researchers on that plane as well.

About 100 of them, if I recall the articles.

--Patrick

Jul 20, 2014#139

drifter

They updated that figure down to six last I heard.

Jul 20, 2014#140

Hailey Knight

PatrThom said:
About 100 of them, if I recall the articles.

--Patrick

That sounds unlikely.

Jul 20, 2014#141

PatrThom

Zero Esc said:
That sounds unlikely.

Articles say 6, but I know I saw 100 of something. Hmm.

--Patrick

Jul 20, 2014#142

bhamv3

PatrThom said:
Articles say 6, but I know I saw 100 of something. Hmm.

--Patrick

Up to 100 attendees traveling to the HIV/AIDS conference, I believe, but only 6 among them were experts in the field.

Jul 21, 2014#143

jwhouk

So if I understand right, the basics are that the Ukrainian rebels/Russian Separatists used this rocket launcher without a radar, which would have detected that it was a civilian airliner flying overhead instead of a Ukrainian troop transport plane.

Which, to me, is like giving some five-year-old children a power drill to play with.

Jul 21, 2014#144

AshburnerX

jwhouk said:
So if I understand right, the basics are that the Ukrainian rebels/Russian Separatists used this rocket launcher without a radar, which would have detected that it was a civilian airliner flying overhead instead of a Ukrainian troop transport plane.

Which, to me, is like giving some five-year-old children a power drill to play with.

Alternatively, they fired the rocket and didn't care it was a civilian target, planning to blame the other side for it. Like is happening now.

Or they just didn't know how to read it was a civilian airliner because they only received bare bones training.

Jul 21, 2014#145

Hailey Knight

AshburnerX said:
Alternatively, they fired the rocket and didn't care it was a civilian target, planning to blame the other side for it. Like is happening now.

Or they just didn't know how to read it was a civilian airliner because they only received bare bones training.

There's no way Russia is going to look at the situation and go "we didn't know what we were doing." That would go against the image they're trying to present now. So even if it was a matter of incompetence, they would still be blaming the other side.

Jul 21, 2014#146

AshburnerX

Zero Esc said:
There's no way Russia is going to look at the situation and go "we didn't know what we were doing." That would go against the image they're trying to present now. So even if it was a matter of incompetence, they would still be blaming the other side.

Exactly. Ether Ukrainian Army did it because they weren't trained correctly in their Warsaw Pact weaponry, the Separatists did the same thing for the same reason, or Russia did it intentionally to place blame on the Ukrainians.

In the end though, none of this matters. Even if we can prove the missile came from areas controlled by the separatists or Ukrainians, the front is fluid and narrow enough that it could have just been forces sneaking over to enemy controlled areas to cause an incident. No one is going to be punished for this.

Jul 21, 2014#147

Eriol

AshburnerX said:
Exactly. Ether Ukrainian Army did it because they weren't trained correctly in their Warsaw Pact weaponry, the Separatists did the same thing for the same reason, or Russia did it intentionally to place blame on the Ukrainians.

And scenario 1 is extremely unlikely because of 1 simple fact: the Rebels aren't flying anything. So there's no "friend or foe" for a Ukrainian missile squad. They literally don't shoot at anything, because there's no reason to until Russia "officially" gets into this fight (which is even more unlikely).

2 or 3 is all that's (reasonably) left.

Jul 21, 2014#148

GasBandit

And the rebels have been ramping up the shooting down of planes for a while.

Jul 23, 2014#149

ncts_dodge_man

Ukraine rebel commander acknowledges fighters had BUK missile - so the rebels had at least 1 BUK missile.

Jul 23, 2014#150

GasBandit

ncts_dodge_man said:
Ukraine rebel commander acknowledges fighters had BUK missile - so the rebels had at least 1 BUK missile.

Which is more egg on the face of the Russian ambassador who was vehemently swearing up and down that they never gave the rebels any missile launchers. Who did then, Turkey?

It's like the Russian national motto has become "You can't prove we did anything, and it's not like you'd do anything about it, anyway."

Jul 23, 2014#151

PatrThom

GasBandit said:
It's like the Russian national motto has become "You can't prove we did anything, and it's not like you'd do anything about it, anyway."

More like, "You can't prove we did anything, because we made sure to destroy all the photographs."

--Patrick

Jul 23, 2014#152

AshburnerX

Considering they just shot down two Ukrainian planes, it's clear they are being armed.

Jul 24, 2014#153

AshburnerX

Pro-Russian rebel looters using looted credit cards from MH17 crash site. Insurgent leader ordering all belongings from MH17 be turned over to fund the fighting.

Jul 24, 2014#154

Jay

Shameless savages

Jul 24, 2014#155

Hailey Knight

And using the victims' phones

Wife says word around the naval base where she works is that some families of victims have been receiving prank calls from the deceased's phones of people laughing, but I haven't seen anything in the news of it.

Jul 24, 2014#156

jwhouk

Actually, I'd like to know what those phones were, because obviously they're built to last...

Of course, it's not like the manufacturers could use that in advertising. "Our phones are so durable, they'll last through a missile strike!"

Jul 27, 2014#157

Hailey Knight

And possibly Russia has weapons of mass destruction.

(No, seriously, that's how Russia is trying to play the coverage of this, as if it's another Iraq.)

Jul 28, 2014#158

Eriol

Zero Esc said:
And possibly Russia has weapons of mass destruction.

What, like this one? Tsar Bomba

As I said before, Putin can and will do anything he wants there, because nobody is going to start WW3 over Ukraine. I believe he could send in the Russian army openly and people still wouldn't militarily intervene. Because he has nukes.

And that's why it's important that aggressive nations don't get them, because nobody is willing to risk going against them once they do. See: North Korea as an example. That is also IMO why Iran would be much more dangerous for the region/world if they get them.

Jul 30, 2014#159

Dave

An oversimplified but fairly accurate depiction of the situation in the Middle East:

Jul 30, 2014#160

SpecialKO

Nice to see that ISIS keeps it uncomplicated.

Aug 22, 2014#161

GasBandit

NATO is now saying it has the evidence to call a spade a spade, asserts Russian artillery units/personnel are fighting in Ukraine on behalf of the separatists -

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/23/w...says.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&smid=tw-nytimes

Aug 22, 2014#162

PatrThom

THANKS PUTIN

--Patrick

Aug 22, 2014#163

ThatNickGuy

Russia just got PUTIN their place by NATO!

Aug 22, 2014#164

GasBandit

PatrThom said:
TANKS PUTIN

--Patrick

FTFY

Aug 22, 2014#165

GasBandit

stienman said:
And what are we going to do about it?

Jack squat.

Most likely. Like we all said at the start of this, nobody's going to go to war with Russia over Ukraine.

Aug 28, 2014#166

Dave

I guess we'll see.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/08/28/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html

Looks like Russia is invading on several fronts.

Aug 28, 2014#167

Eriol

And then there's this: Canada mocks Russia on Twitter with helpful map and geography lesson offer

Go Canada!

Aug 28, 2014#168

Dave

And they are violating Finnish airspace.

http://yle.fi/uutiset/third_russian_airspace_violation_in_a_week/7438235

Aug 28, 2014#169

Eriol

Dave said:
And they are violating Finnish airspace.

http://yle.fi/uutiset/third_russian_airspace_violation_in_a_week/7438235

Non-coincidentally: Finland and Sweden to Strengthen Ties with NATO
I'll bet that everybody on that border now wishes they had become full NATO members long ago like Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are. Even now, Russia's still not stupid enough (yet) to overfly actual NATO members.

Just so that everybody remembers, under that treaty, a conventional forces invasion on any NATO member justifies a Nuclear response from NATO allies.

Aug 28, 2014#170

GasBandit

Eriol said:
Just so that everybody remembers, under that treaty, a conventional forces invasion on any NATO member justifies a Nuclear response from NATO allies.

There's a question though about how much of a paper tiger that clause is, especially given that it would be vs a nuclear-capable Russia.

Aug 28, 2014#171

AshburnerX

GasBandit said:
There's a question though about how much of a paper tiger that clause is, especially given that it would be vs a nuclear-capable Russia.

True, but we also have some missile defense systems in NATO leaning countries. It might be enough to deter anyone from pushing a button.

Aug 28, 2014#172

GasBandit

AshburnerX said:
True, but we also have some missile defense systems in NATO leaning countries. It might be enough to deter anyone from pushing a button.

Even if those systems are 99% effective, that hundredth missile getting through would be the most cataclysmic event in human history.

Aug 28, 2014#173

sixpackshaker

I have not read back, but just last month Russia broke an important Nuke Treaty. I.N.F.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/29/w...uise-missile-in-violation-of-treaty.html?_r=0

Aug 28, 2014#174

Eriol

GasBandit said:
There's a question though about how much of a paper tiger that clause is, especially given that it would be vs a nuclear-capable Russia.

The point is that they know any conventional attack will be met with MAD. Which worked for close to 70 years. Let's hope that keeps working.

Aug 28, 2014#175

GasBandit

Eriol said:
The point is that they know any conventional attack will be met with MAD. Which worked for close to 70 years. Let's hope that keeps working.

Apparently it hasn't.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/08/28/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html

Russian troops and tanks. Russian media has changed its story to "Ok, yes, there are russian troops on the ground, but they're all retirees or on vacation, doing what they want on their own, so who are we to stop them?"

And who are they to apparently let them bring their tanks along on vacation, too, I guess.

Aug 28, 2014#176

GasBandit

stienman said:
Gasbandit, you and I both know that if you happened to have access to tank, say the military left their keys in it and sent you an email with the gate passcode, you would take that thing with you on vacation.

I mean, really, who wouldn't?

Aug 28, 2014#177

bhamv3

stienman said:
Gasbandit, you and I both know that if you happened to have access to tank, say the military left their keys in it and sent you an email with the gate passcode, you would take that thing with you on vacation.

I mean, really, who wouldn't?

I wouldn't. I'd imagine it'd be pretty hard to find parking for it.

Aug 28, 2014#178

GasBandit

bhamv3 said:
I wouldn't. I'd imagine it'd be pretty hard to find parking for it.

It's easy as hell to park a tank. There's no such thing as a "full lot" to a tank.

Aug 28, 2014#179

Dave

http://www.driveatank.com/

It's in Minnesota.

Aug 28, 2014#180

sixpackshaker

bhamv3 said:
I wouldn't. I'd imagine it'd be pretty hard to find parking for it.

You could park anywhere you want.

Aug 28, 2014#181

Eriol

GasBandit said:
Apparently it hasn't.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/08/28/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html

Russian troops and tanks. Russian media has changed its story to "Ok, yes, there are russian troops on the ground, but they're all retirees or on vacation, doing what they want on their own, so who are we to stop them?"

And who are they to apparently let them bring their tanks along on vacation, too, I guess.

Ukraine isn't part of NATO. Neither is Finland. That's my point about Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. They were even parts of the USSR if I remember correctly, but Russia isn't even overflying them, because they are full NATO members. Not actually a part of NATO? Russia can do whatever the fuck it wants because the West is NOT going to risk it.

I believe I said the same a number of pages ago.

Aug 28, 2014#182

GasBandit

Eriol said:
Ukraine isn't part of NATO. Neither is Finland. That's my point about Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. They were even parts of the USSR if I remember correctly, but Russia isn't even overflying them, because they are full NATO members. Not actually a part of NATO? Russia can do whatever the fuck it wants because the West is NOT going to risk it.

I believe I said the same a number of pages ago.

That's true, and I agreed with that. Nobody's going to go to war with Russia over Ukraine. I guess that means the question is will Ukraine be enough to sate the bear in the woods?

Aug 28, 2014#183

Eriol

GasBandit said:
That's true, and I agreed with that. Nobody's going to go to war with Russia over Ukraine. I guess that means the question is will Ukraine be enough to sate the bear in the woods?

Just like Austria was, and the Czech Republic (or whatever it was at the time), and... Oh was that somebody else? Appeasement works SO well against bullies/murderers.

+1 Godwin

Aug 28, 2014#184

GasBandit

Eriol said:
Just like Austria was, and the Czech Republic (or whatever it was at the time), and... Oh was that somebody else? Appeasement works SO well against bullies/murderers.

+1 Godwin

You just know Russia's salivating over the Baltic states that broke away first. No wonder they were so hot to join NATO. Russia would climb over a surprisingly large pile of dead babies if it meant more warm water ports.

Aug 28, 2014#185

Eriol

GasBandit said:
You just know Russia's salivating over the Baltic states that broke away first. No wonder they were so hot to join NATO. Russia would climb over a surprisingly large pile of dead babies if it meant more warm water ports.

Hey, not every country can have Halifax in it. Deep water harbour. Never freezes. Narrow (but not too much) of an entryway that can be easily defended.

Sep 2, 2014#186

Dave

And now ISIS has beheaded another US journalist.

Sep 2, 2014#187

PatrThom

Dave said:
And now ISIS has beheaded another US journalist.

Gotta keep their name in the news somehow.

--Patrick

Sep 2, 2014#188

GasBandit

Dave said:
And now ISIS has beheaded another US journalist.

What exactly do these people think doing this will accomplish? Make us say "sorry" and go away?

Sep 2, 2014#189

PatrThom

GasBandit said:
What exactly do these people think doing this will accomplish? Make us say "sorry" and go away?

stienman said:
It's discouraging journalists from coming close enough to report on them more fully.

It is the very definition of Terrorism.

--Patrick

Sep 2, 2014#190

AshburnerX

See... I don't see how we look weak over Ukraine. It's more that we simply don't care.

Sep 2, 2014#191

Dave

And the last time we went all hidey-hole we let Hitler run rampant over Europe as it was "not our problem". I'm seeing a lot of parallels in the way Putin has been acting, although he's being more back-end and gaming the system than Hitler's blitzkrieg.

Sep 2, 2014#192

Hailey Knight

That doesn't surprise me.

Sep 3, 2014#193

fade

It would really surprise me if Russia's failure to comply with disarmament wasn't anticipated and considered heavily by the current administration and the massive associated advisory team. I can guess that there was some reasoning beyond ignorance behind the decision. I would venture a guess that someone is trying to play the game like chess rather than football, and is attempting to position the US on the world political field. Whether that's right or not is a different story, but I doubt it was a decision made without considering that Russia wouldn't reciprocate.

Sep 3, 2014#194

Shakey

stienman said:
Better still, help me understand the end game that is worth the loss of the Crimean peninsula to Russia. This gives them a huge military and economic advantage in Europe.

We never really had it to lose. What makes it something we, the US, need? If it's for the benefit of Europe, why not let them deal with it?

Sep 3, 2014#195

GasBandit

Shakey said:
We never really had it to lose. What makes it something we, the US, need? If it's for the benefit of Europe, why not let them deal with it?

Because they pretty much can't. It is in our interests, however, to support western civilization and democracy where it is trying to bloom.

Sep 3, 2014#196

Terrik

GasBandit said:
Because they pretty much can't. It is in our interests, however, to support western civilization and democracy where it is trying to bloom.

I'm sorry, I can't hear you over the deafening silence of the West over the recent proclamations of Beijing in regards to Hong Kong's democracy. Get on the ball, Western civilization.

Sep 3, 2014#197

GasBandit

Terrik said:
I'm sorry, I can't hear you over the deafening silence of the West over the recent proclamations of Beijing in regards to Hong Kong's democracy. Get on the ball, Western civilization.

Frankly I'm surprised it took Beijing as long as it has. But Hong Kong isn't the same as Crimea - China has plenty of warm water ports, and not very many ships.

Sep 3, 2014#198

Eriol

Terrik said:
I'm sorry, I can't hear you over the deafening silence of the West over the recent proclamations of Beijing in regards to Hong Kong's democracy. Get on the ball, Western civilization.

Reuters summary: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...racy-hong-kong-activists-say/article20318108/

Sep 3, 2014#199

Shakey

stienman said:
That's actually the whole point of my post.

Is this, as fade suggests, a smart tactical move which will position the US favorably on the world stage?

Or is it simply isolationist and reactionary?

Your post appears to agree with my sentiment that it's isolationist and reactionary, and that we should let the rest of the world twist in the wind and be bullied by the other world superpowers.

Meanwhile the other superpowers grow and strengthen, knowing we will no longer check their expansion.

I think it's in our best interests to push our allies to be a bit more self reliant and not wait for us to fix it. A strong Europe willing to put their soldiers in harms way when threatened by a neighbor is a much better deterrent than one across the ocean who is expected to be everywhere.

This is something Europe can and should handle. They're not helpless.

Sep 3, 2014#200

GasBandit

Shakey said:
This is something Europe can and should handle. They're not helpless.

They have been for almost the entirety of living memory, what has changed?

Sep 3, 2014#201

Eriol

GasBandit said:
They have been for almost the entirety of living memory, what has changed?

I'd qualify that: not-Britain in Europe qualifies for that statement. Britain is an exception to your statement there.

Sep 3, 2014#202

Shakey

GasBandit said:
They have been for almost the entirety of living memory, what has changed?

I don't buy it. Even if they are, it's because we insist on taking care of everyone else's problems. We're enabling them, and it's a good reason for them to change it.

Sep 3, 2014#203

AshburnerX

GasBandit said:
They have been for almost the entirety of living memory, what has changed?

I think the fundamental issue at hand is that Europe isn't willing to fight anymore, as they basically had a thousand years of looming war before the end of World War 2. They are tired of sending people off to die. But Russia? It's been getting the shit kicked out of it for almost as long. Russians are paranoid of other powers trying to take what is there and it's basically made them a bit crazy. So now they are willing to just take whatever they want because they know NO ONE will ever have there back.

Sep 3, 2014#204

GasBandit

AshburnerX said:
I think the fundamental issue at hand is that Europe isn't willing to fight anymore, as they basically had a thousand years of looming war before the end of World War 2. They are tired of sending people off to die. But Russia? It's been getting the shit kicked out of it for almost as long. Russians are paranoid of other powers trying to take what is there and it's basically made them a bit crazy. So now they are willing to just take whatever they want because they know NO ONE will ever have there back.

Russia - the psychotic homeless guy of the world.

Sep 3, 2014#205

Ravenpoe

stienman said:
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/ukraine-cr...pe-sexual-orientation-they-must-stick-1463683

Does anyone else find this disturbingly similar to how Nazi Germany began using a minority to direct blame and scorn onto as a way of distracting the people?

Sep 3, 2014#206

GasBandit

Ravenpoe said:
Does anyone else find this disturbingly similar to how Nazi Germany began using a minority to direct blame and scorn onto as a way of distracting the people?

It's not unique to the Nazis - "All our problems are the fault of the (scapegoat people)" is a common thread in the rise to power of a lot of tyrants and murderers.

Sep 3, 2014#207

sixpackshaker

Ravenpoe said:
Does anyone else find this disturbingly similar to how Nazi Germany began using a minority to direct blame and scorn onto as a way of distracting the people?

The Nazis were actually rougher on the gays than the Russians are now. Even though the first head of the Nazi party's secret police was gay. Until the day the party took power and had him killed for his gayness.

Sep 3, 2014#208

jwhouk

I'd almost find it sad if someone from a century or so from now were to claim that World War 3 actually began on 11 September 2001...

Sep 3, 2014#209

GasBandit

jwhouk said:
I'd almost find it sad if someone from a century or so from now were to claim that World War 3 actually began on 11 September 2001...

I've actually read that the cold war was de facto WW3, and the war on terrorism is the de facto WW4. Though, if we're going to split hairs here, 9/11 was the trigger, but not the start of the actual war. Austria didn't declare war the very day Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated (that came about a month later, IIRC). So, probably something more akin to March 20, 2003.

Sep 3, 2014#210

bhamv3

GasBandit said:
Russia - the psychotic homeless guy of the world.

What does that make North Korea then?

Sep 3, 2014#211

PatrThom

bhamv3 said:
What does that make North Korea then?

Gollum.

--Patrick

Sep 4, 2014#212

Jax

GasBandit said:
They have been for almost the entirety of living memory, what has changed?

Europe especially felt helpless when they set out and colonized the rest of the world for about 4 centuries, and in essence made the US possible in the first place (you're welcome btw). Whereas the US has only existed for 200 something years. You guys have basically just reached puberty and think you're invincible, let's see how you guys do in a couple centuries later..

Shakey said:
I don't buy it. Even if they are, it's because we insist on taking care of everyone else's problems. We're enabling them, and it's a good reason for them to change it.

So, the US decides by itself whether they want to get involved with something or not (spoiler: the "not" category is pretty far behind), and you say that the other party is the one that should change this?

Sep 4, 2014#213

Shakey

Jax said:
So, the US decides by itself whether they want to get involved with something or not (spoiler: the "not" category is pretty far behind), and you say that the other party is the one that should change this?

No, I'm saying we should change it by staying out of it and letting Europe take the lead. I'm not saying we shouldn't get involved if asked to by our allies, but we don't need to be out in front on this one.

Sep 4, 2014#214

tegid

GasBandit said:
They have been for almost the entirety of living memory, what has changed?

I guess 'the entirety of living memory' means WWII, huh? Which doesn't even make sense because half of Europe were the bad guys in that war... And every other war Europe has been involved in has been (at least in part) internal! But whatever.

Anyway, I agree that the US shouldn't be doing much in Ukraine. If something needs to be done it should be done by the EU. After all the Ukranian government is 'pro-European' (which does not mean the US shouldn't be looking for their own interests and for instance pressure the EU to act).[DOUBLEPOST=1409837932,1409837814][/DOUBLEPOST]

stienman said:
I haven't looked too deeply into it, is Ukraine asking anyone for help? If they don't want help, then ok, let's leave them to it. But if they're asking for our help, is it best to ignore the requests?

In a way at least they are:

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way...ter-says-government-will-seek-nato-membership

Sep 4, 2014#215

GasBandit

Jax said:
Europe especially felt helpless when they set out and colonized the rest of the world for about 4 centuries, and in essence made the US possible in the first place (you're welcome btw).

And then the 20th century happened, and alllllll that gumption went away.

Sep 4, 2014#216

tegid

Oh, as an aside, FUCK the attitude of 'these people are helpless pussies that need (the) US to save their asses'. The US supported the dictatorship in Spain for more 25 years. Which, you know, is the opposite of helping democracy or whichever shit you think you do.

Sep 4, 2014#217

GasBandit

tegid said:
I guess 'the entirety of living memory' means WWII, huh? Which doesn't even make sense because half of Europe were the bad guys in that war... And every other war Europe has been involved in has been (at least in part) internal! But whatever.

It means Post-WW2. After all, the few living WW2 vets left are roughly 90 years old now. The amount of time that has passed between the end of WW2 and now is about the same as had passed between the end of the American Civil War and the start of WW2.

tegid said:
Anyway, I agree that the US shouldn't be doing much in Ukraine. If something needs to be done it should be done by the EU. After all the Ukranian government is 'pro-European' (which does not mean the US shouldn't be looking for their own interests and for instance pressure the EU to act).

What will Europe do? More sanctions? The only thing that really gives the EU's threats any teeth is the unspoken implication that Europe can pretty much snap its fingers and the Americans will show up.[DOUBLEPOST=1409838740,1409838545][/DOUBLEPOST]

tegid said:
Oh, as an aside, FUCK the attitude of 'these people are helpless pussies that need (the) US to save their asses'.

Truth stings, don't it.

The US supported the dictatorship in Spain for more 25 years. Which, you know, is the opposite of helping democracy or whichever shit you think you do.

When the choice is between a dictator and communism, we do generally tend to side with the dictator. I'll grant that.

Sep 4, 2014#218

tegid

GasBandit said:
It means Post-WW2. After all, the few living WW2 vets left are roughly 90 years old now. The amount of time that has passed between the end of WW2 and now is about the same as had passed between the end of the American Civil War and the start of WW2.

That's what I meant. That was the last war in which Europe was a major player and needed help from the US. The Cold War is an entirely different animal.
Also, see my other post, in which I'm talking about the 50s.

What will Europe do? More sanctions? The only thing that really gives the EU's threats any teeth is the unspoken implication that Europe can pretty much snap its fingers and the Americans will show up.

If it's best for the US to participate directly and take the initiative, then the US should go for it. If it's in the interest of the US to have a militarly stronger EU (maybe it isn't), then you should probably be pressuring the EU into taking militar initiative, even it it's with your support. The third option is to jsut let the situation be but I don't think that's a good idea for the US interests.

Sep 4, 2014#219

GasBandit

tegid said:
If it's best for the US to participate directly and take the initiative, then the US should go for it. If it's in the interest of the US to have a militarly stronger EU (maybe it isn't), then you should probably be pressuring the EU into taking militar initiative, even it it's with your support. The third option is to jsut let the situation be but I don't think that's a good idea for the US interests.

I'm not sure we've decided exactly what our best interests are, really. As other posters have noted, our current administration is pretty flaccid when it comes to foreign policy. Obama doesn't have the credibility (or capability, it seems) to talk tough to the Russians, so as far as they're concerned, he's a weakling to be manipulated or disregarded. It'd be nice if the EU would flex, but will they? Do they really have the will, much less the materiel, to go as far as they need to against Russia (and possibly its military)?

And we come back around to what many (including myself) said at the beginning of the thread - I don't think anybody's going to go to war over Ukraine, and Putin knows it, so he can pretty much do as he wishes, short of invading a nation with NATO full membership. Ukraine's intent to join NATO might be too late.

Sep 4, 2014#220

tegid

GasBandit said:
When the choice is between a dictator and communism, we do generally tend to side with the dictator. I'll grant that.

Yeah, unles the dictator has a lot of oil

No seriously. Yes, nice guy US saving countries from communism. Come on, man. It was pure interest. Strategic location, air base, whatever.
Also, the dictatorship in question was surprisingly similar in some aspects to communism (extremes touch and whatever).
Do whatever you want, just don't take the high horse.[DOUBLEPOST=1409839974,1409839518][/DOUBLEPOST]I'll say this: the individual EU governments will never go to war or even insinuate going to war, because as we all know, the European population is very war-weary (no need to go as far as the 1000 years of wars in the previous centuries, altough it is a valid point. Simply take into account that everyone has parents or granparents who lived in the midst of war), which makes it political suicide... and they have enough as it is.
The only way for the EU to take action is the united block it's supposed to be for shit like this.

Sep 5, 2014#221

Covar

GasBandit said:
Frankly I'm surprised it took Beijing as long as it has. But Hong Kong isn't the same as Crimea - China has plenty of warm water ports, and not very many ships.

I'm always surprised that HK was never absorbed back into the mainland government back in 97.

Sep 5, 2014#222

GasBandit

stienman said:
Part of the deal to release it back to Chinese control was that it be politically autonomous in certain ways.

Sure, but how exactly would that have been enforced if Beijing had gone "PSYCH" and brought down the commu-hammer? As they're kinda doing now...

Sep 5, 2014#223

PatrThom

stienman said:
Lawyers will always find loopholes. Any treaty is a risk.

"Find" loopholes? How I see it, most treaties are basically a competition to see how many loopholes you can hide in a document.

--Patrick

Oct 30, 2014#224

PatrThom

Putin has some things to say, and he said them.

--Patrick

Oct 31, 2014#225

AshburnerX

Russia's ability to project power ends where the borders of the NATO member states begin. The -only- reason he got Crimea is because Ukraine refused to shape up enough to join ether the EU or NATO. Until Putin can accept this fact, there is nothing talk about.

It's also completely ridiculous that he believes he is in any shape to negotiate anything. He controls a slowly dying petro-state. Unless Russia can diversify it's economy beyond oil exports, it's going to fall even deeper into decline as Europe gets it's energy independence programs up to snuff.

Oct 31, 2014#226

Krisken

I really doubt it. I'm siding with economics on this one.

Oct 31, 2014#227

AshburnerX

stienman said:
One wonders if the recent drop in oil prices is an intentional attempt to economically harm Russia. The price drop is certainly hurting them, and projections suggest that if oil goes below $80/barrel Russia will enter a recession. Right now it's at $93/barrel.

OPEC has indicated they are not going to decrease production, and north america over the last decade has significantly increased its own production. It seems we are in a position to exert significant economic power over Russia.

It really just depends on two things:

- How soon Europe becomes energy independent
- How much China and North Korea are willing to pay for oil

Energy independence is the new missile defense system of world governments and there really isn't any reasonable action you can take against it without losing a favorable face. China is a long way from doing it (though they'll quickly catch up once someone develops the tech for it) and North Korea is in no position to get there, making them the most likely targets for future energy exports.

Oct 31, 2014#228

Eriol

AshburnerX said:
North Korea is in no position to get there, making them the most likely targets for future energy exports.

They don't have enough people, and are not developed enough an economy to matter in any significant way. China sure, they are. NK isn't. Only 24 Million people. That's not that high on the world stage. And most of them are in very very harsh poverty. They're in no position to affect economies of scale to much of any degree.

Nov 7, 2014#229

Dave

http://news.sky.com/story/1368812/russia-sends-dozens-of-tanks-into-ukraine

Russia sending tanks into Ukraine. Oh, and they shot down that passenger plane. Anyone remember that?

Nov 7, 2014#230

GasBandit

Nov 8, 2014#231

Null

Putin basically has to convince his own people that American and Western Europe are the enemy and that they are to blame for Russia's problems, and to show that the USA and European Union have no resolve. It's key to him remaining in power - making it seem like he's protecting his nation and making it strong, instead of exploiting it. Standard dictatorship policy, really.

Feb 2, 2015#232

GasBandit

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/02/world/us-taking-a-fresh-look-at-arming-kiev-forces.html?_r=0

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