When to test for performance enhancers...

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When a player's performance jumps suddenly, especially in a power category, from their track record, I think that warrants drug testing. Now, the case that brings this to mind especially is Jose Bautista of the Toronto Blue Jays. In 2006, his first full season, he hit 16 home runs. 2007, 15 homers. 2008, also 15 homers. Last year, he hit 13 home runs. This year, he's hit 43 so far - as much as his last three seasons put together and leading the majors after not making the top 50 his previous years. In addition, his average has climbed from the .230's (2006, 2008, 2009; in 2007 it was .254) to around .260 so far this season. Last year he had 54 runs scored, this year he's at 90 so far - 15 over his previous best year in 2007, and double his 2008 total. He's also been very argumentative with the umpires, barking after a lot of strike calls he didn't approve of. In fact, as I'm writing this, he just got thrown out for shouting at home plate umpire over a (bad) strike three call. (It was definitely a ball thrown by Joba Chamberlain - but antagonizing the ump isn't going to help your case).

When a player's offensive output nearly TRIPLES, I think that's grounds for testing. He was a load when he was on the pirates, and now all of a sudden he's one of the most dangerous batters in the AL East, a division loaded with great hitters?

What do you guys think? Whose numbers have jumped enough to warrant testing?
 
Sometimes players do get better. Also lol at you bringing up runs, that has more to do with speed on the bases and the averages of the players batting behind him than anything.
 
Sometimes players do get better. Also lol at you bringing up runs, that has more to do with speed on the bases and the averages of the players batting behind him than anything.
The team is not hitting immensely more runs than it did last year, so his massive improvement doesn't follow that it's a team result. They have not had explosively better numbers. Besides, if you subtract 30 home runs (so it's in line with his previous seasons - 13 to 16 per year instead of over 40 this year) you also lose that many runs scored. 60 runs scored is in the same neighborhood as his previous years - 54 last year with the same team, 45 the year before with a different team. The jump in his runs scored is reliant entirely on his increased home runs.

Yeah, players get better. They don't completely transform into different players in one off-season, though.
 
I thought Toronto was, as a team, hitting insanely more HRs than usual.

---------- Post added at 05:51 AM ---------- Previous post was at 05:49 AM ----------

Yeah - just looked it up. They have 205, leading MLB by THIRTY! Last year, they had 209 for the YEAR. New hitting coach?
 
I thought Toronto was, as a team, hitting insanely more HRs than usual.

---------- Post added at 05:51 AM ---------- Previous post was at 05:49 AM ----------

Yeah - just looked it up. They have 205, leading MLB by THIRTY! Last year, they had 209 for the YEAR. New hitting coach?
Still no harm in testing him.
 
I thought Toronto was, as a team, hitting insanely more HRs than usual.

---------- Post added at 05:51 AM ---------- Previous post was at 05:49 AM ----------

Yeah - just looked it up. They have 205, leading MLB by THIRTY! Last year, they had 209 for the YEAR. New hitting coach?
And if you subtract Bautista's 30, bringing him back down to his usual numbers, that's 178 for the team (they hit three today off the Yankees, none by Bautista), 31 short of their season total last year. There are less than 30 games left in the season, so to tie last year, without Bautista's swollen numbers, they'll have to hit a home run in every remaining game, and two in at least one game. So that actually kind of holds with what I'm saying - his numbers have jumped tremendously but the rest of the team isn't much different. In fact, the only other players on the team that's hit more than 20 are Vernon Wells, and Aaron Hill, with 24 and 22 respectively. Wells averages in the mid to low 20s in homeruns, so he's in that area - his career high is 33. Lind has very up and down stats, but it looks like he missed most of 2008 with an injury. He hit 36 homers in 2009 and has 22 this year. But in 2009, he also had a huge number of at bats - close to 700.

It should also rain a few eyebrows that the home run leading team in the majors, is in 4th place in their division and 11 games from being eliminated.
 
It should also rain a few eyebrows that the home run leading team in the majors, is in 4th place in their division and 11 games from being eliminated.
I'm not sure what you're getting at. They have really shitty pitching and are in the most-stacked division in any pro sport. The Rays, Yankees, and Red Sox would win any other division and win the National League easy.
 
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