If Romney wins the GOP, I forsee bad things for....
- Thread starter Shegokigo
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They need to tie this up and fast. The longer they draw this out, the less and less rational they seem.
GasBandit
Staff member
You'd be surprised how short the average voter's memory/attention span is. Super tuesday, according to google, more people were concerned with finding out about Snooki's babydaddy than they were about super tuesday, Obama's speech, iran, israel or anything else that happened that day.
Wave something shiny (or more often, scary) in front of voters of any stripe, and they forget all about what happened last month as they shit themselves. We have truly dug ourselves our very own, custom fitted hole.
Wave something shiny (or more often, scary) in front of voters of any stripe, and they forget all about what happened last month as they shit themselves. We have truly dug ourselves our very own, custom fitted hole.
You know, sometimes I like Gabriel Iglacias' idea on how to run a presidential election. Hold an hour long contest on TV called "Who's going to run this bitch," give each candidate 30 minutes to talk, flash an 800 number on the screen with option 1 for the first candidate and option 2 for the second; then have a two hour long award show the following week. Bam! Instant voter participation increase. Of course, we'd wind up with Snooki running the damn country, but at least it might be a fun last two weeks on earth.
There are still times I don't like a post, but I agree with it, and thus, rarely, the little voting widget is inadequate.
Voters have such a short memory. Last major election all the candidates had the drastically change their message in the last two months, and people were left scrambling.
While it would be nice to tie things up now and start the Obama bashing and demonstrate party unity, it will only take a month after the convention to do that, and then people won't even care that this dragged on as long as it always does.
Voters have such a short memory. Last major election all the candidates had the drastically change their message in the last two months, and people were left scrambling.
While it would be nice to tie things up now and start the Obama bashing and demonstrate party unity, it will only take a month after the convention to do that, and then people won't even care that this dragged on as long as it always does.
Yep, but he's also been able to pull in a lot of money, and that will only increase once the convention has settled.
It's still going to be an uphill battle for him, money or no.
Necronic
Staff member
The thing is that normally the voters that supported one candidate will move to the other after the primary. I just don't see the religious right voting for Romney. I have nothing against Mormons myself, they are really nice people, but for an evangelical Nazzerine Christian that looks to the bible when he votes it would be like voting for Richard Dawkins.
GasBandit
Staff member
Depends on how much the "look, it's me or Obama at this point" message sinks in.
GasBandit
Staff member
Which is why I said, "depends." We won't know 'til it happens, or doesn't.
I doubt him being a Mormon will really be an issue. It seems the media makes it into an issue more than anything.
Romney does suffer from the same problem as Kerry did though. They're boring as hell. That will be more of a hurdle for him than his religion. Especially compared to a camera friendly charismatic Obama. In the end it's all a popularity contest.
Romney does suffer from the same problem as Kerry did though. They're boring as hell. That will be more of a hurdle for him than his religion. Especially compared to a camera friendly charismatic Obama. In the end it's all a popularity contest.
I think that race was completely different, and Kerry lost due to poor campaigning. Kerry didn't have the equivalent of rove on his staff making sure things went his direction. There are a lot of other things, but I don't think you can easily compare the two. Bushes approval rating was low, but I think people believed that he was necessary, and that as bad as bush was, Kerry simply wouldn't have been better.
The Obama campaign blew everyone away four years ago. Now that people have had a taste, is he so bad that they're willing to try someone different, or do they stick with the evil they know?
Further, there'd are a few hot button issues the evangelicals will side with Romney over Obama for, such as abortion, same sex marriage, etc. They may not fully agree with him on the particulars, but they can see that Obama is clearly headed in the direction they'd like to avoid, given that he's changed the military's position, and ordered the ag to stop arguing in behalf of doma and similar laws.
Lastly, we've only got half the story. Once the convention is done, the running mate can make up for a lot of the candidate's inadequacies.
Besides, it's still anyone's race. We're quite early in the primary, and we've still got a lot of time left to shake things up. Any significant shift in the economy, the culture, or world will cause everyone to tumble around a bit. I think the supreme court is due to weigh in on prop 8 this summer, and regardless of who makes it out of the convention or what the ruling turns out to be, that could be a significant polarizing act for both parties, and totally change the tone of their messages. Thats just one thing out of dozens of likely events that will shake things up.
The Obama campaign blew everyone away four years ago. Now that people have had a taste, is he so bad that they're willing to try someone different, or do they stick with the evil they know?
Further, there'd are a few hot button issues the evangelicals will side with Romney over Obama for, such as abortion, same sex marriage, etc. They may not fully agree with him on the particulars, but they can see that Obama is clearly headed in the direction they'd like to avoid, given that he's changed the military's position, and ordered the ag to stop arguing in behalf of doma and similar laws.
Lastly, we've only got half the story. Once the convention is done, the running mate can make up for a lot of the candidate's inadequacies.
Besides, it's still anyone's race. We're quite early in the primary, and we've still got a lot of time left to shake things up. Any significant shift in the economy, the culture, or world will cause everyone to tumble around a bit. I think the supreme court is due to weigh in on prop 8 this summer, and regardless of who makes it out of the convention or what the ruling turns out to be, that could be a significant polarizing act for both parties, and totally change the tone of their messages. Thats just one thing out of dozens of likely events that will shake things up.
What campaigns? It appears to me that they aren't running for president, they are running for GOP nomination, and that is a very different form of a campaigning than what one might expect during a presidential election.
Besides, it's like running a race. If you start sprinting too early, you run out of steam at the last minute. Start too late and the others pass you up, and you can't win back the time you lost. To some degree that can be made up with money, but not completely.
I think the democrats only have to worry about complacency right now. So many of them are convinced Obama won't lose that they might not provide enough support and funding until they suddenly notice that things aren't going so well. The democrat's challenge is energizing their base while still presenting the message that the republicans can't possibly win. The republicans are content to gather speed so by the time the democratic base notices it'll be a really hard push to get up to speed before Obama gets passed.
Besides, it's like running a race. If you start sprinting too early, you run out of steam at the last minute. Start too late and the others pass you up, and you can't win back the time you lost. To some degree that can be made up with money, but not completely.
I think the democrats only have to worry about complacency right now. So many of them are convinced Obama won't lose that they might not provide enough support and funding until they suddenly notice that things aren't going so well. The democrat's challenge is energizing their base while still presenting the message that the republicans can't possibly win. The republicans are content to gather speed so by the time the democratic base notices it'll be a really hard push to get up to speed before Obama gets passed.
We also can't discount that last time Obama ran a brilliant online and young adult campaign which many believe made a significant impact on the election. Can he repeat that, or does he now believe he won't need it? Has he retained the people he converted the first time around, or are they dissatisfied with his results, given the occupy protests from that same base?
It is fortunate that they occupy protests were wrapped up well in advance of the election season, but will they resume after winter, and will they so easily be hushed up?
One month can make all the difference.
It is fortunate that they occupy protests were wrapped up well in advance of the election season, but will they resume after winter, and will they so easily be hushed up?
One month can make all the difference.
See, this doesn't address what I said in the least. I'm not addressing how far right everyone in the GOP is leaning to attract the base. As far as what they have been doing so far, the campaigns themselves have been shit-tacular. Not getting enough signatures to get on ballots, speaking engagements in arenas that aren't filled, and the effort not just on the national level but in the individual states disenfranchising conservative women voters has been hard to ignore. They may not vote Obama, but don't be surprised if they aren't thrilled who the nominee ends up being for the GOP either. There is no guarantee they will hold their nose and vote either.
Necronic
Staff member
I think you seriously underestimate how many underlying problems there are between mormons and evangelicals, specifically the Southern Babtists out there who have had numerous high-ranking pastors explicitly state that their congregation should not vote for Romney because Mormonism is a cult.
The problem with statements like this is that you can't ever put them back in the bag. You can't come back 3 months later after Santorum looses and say "well it's ok now because it's more important to replace Obama", you don't get to switch to a secular tone. They are going to loose a LOT of voters because of that.
I think you underestimate how many of those evangelicals are just as republican as they are evangelical. Much like my ultra-right-wing-evangelical father-in-law really. He wanted Bachmann. He WILL vote for whomever the candidate is. Except for Ron Paul. Who is "a pot loving liberal".
Ponder that.
Ponder that.
Necronic
Staff member
It's true that there are many in the religious right that will ultimately side with their secular interests, and anyone has a good history of voting is probably still going to vote republican. But the question is about whether Romney can energize those on the religious right that aren't a sure thing to show up to vote. I think a significant number of those that don't normally vote will stay home.
Romney energizing the right is really the bigger and more realistic issue than the smaller group of far right evangelicals who don't like Romney due to his religion. I would totally agree that unless something major happens (Palin veep again? Yikes) it is going to be way more about how pissed off Repubs are at Obama. If they are sufficiently angry they will vote against him. If they are only mildly annoyed then, well, welcome to the second term of Obama.
Ok, so is Romney trolling us or what...
Because damn son, that's some freudian slip: http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?f...50102744196083.306718.598386082&type=1&ref=nf
Because damn son, that's some freudian slip: http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?f...50102744196083.306718.598386082&type=1&ref=nf
If Romnney wins, we get a religious republican nut-job who hates Obama-care. If Santorum wins, we get a religious nut-job who hates Obama-care....with the charisma of a dead newt.
Seriously, how did Santorum make it this far? Every time I hear him talk I fall to sleep. At least with Romney's constant flip-flopping he's interesting.
Seriously, how did Santorum make it this far? Every time I hear him talk I fall to sleep. At least with Romney's constant flip-flopping he's interesting.
In his speeches I always imagine him auditioning to be Batman, trying to lower his voice or make it more gravelly to seem in charge.
Maybe he's not the president we need, but the president we deserve. Cue credits.
Santorum has a much bigger cult of personality amid the hyper-religious woman-hating right than Romney ever will.
"right version of Obama" = Obama post-election lol
I know you are joking, but I really doubt it. I think, depending on what happens in the Senate and House elections, Obama will be more progressive with his policies in a second term than he would be in the first. Remember, Clinton was more conservative in his first term than in his second after his attempt to overhaul health care.
Strike that and reverse it.
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