Can we talk about Oil?

Necronic

Staff member
So. Oil prices are at a new obscene low. The Saudis have no intent to cut their production and are fine running in the red for quite a while. As a Texan, and a Houstonian, I fear we are on our way to a new recession. I don't know if it will hit the nation as a whole but Texas and the Dakotas are in a lot of trouble.

But I also appreciate my views are myopically self interested. This is good for some sectors. But I'm really worried we are right on the verge of a new worldwide recession. I dunno.

Curious to hear your thoughts.
 
Personally I think the reason behind the price drop is the US and OPEC trying to hurt Russia. Russia wants to prove to the world how tough they are and we are going to make them prove it this winter, when they will have to burn rubles to stay warm.
 

Necronic

Staff member
I've heard that, and it's an interesting thought. Not really sure what the Saudis have to gain from hurting Russia though, I think they have way more to gain by hurting US shale oil development and hurting alternative energy development, which this does. Which is also why I have a hard believing the US is behind this.

My belief is that this is the Saudis fighting a war of attrition against the world to show that they are still relevant even though US production has exploded so fiercely. And it's working.
 

GasBandit

Staff member
I've heard that, and it's an interesting thought. Not really sure what the Saudis have to gain from hurting Russia though
A pipeline to eastern europe, maybe. Perhaps they want to supplant Gazprom as the major supplier of petroleum to that area.

But no doubt the Saudis also want to put the shale companies out of business, if it can. But Russia is in their neck of the woods.
 
The less money Russia has, the fewer weapons they will give away to all the insurgents in the world. Now they might have to start raising the prices on all those AK's in Syria.
 
This isn't about hurting the alternative energy companies... big oil already owns stock in many of these companies and knows it will have to switch eventually. This is entirely about shutting down shale... they want to keep the US from becoming energy independent because they know what happens to them when we do.
 

Dave

Staff member
I know it's bad for the economy, but with gas prices under $2 for the first time in over a decade, I love it.
 
On the one hand, I am enjoying the low gas prices, as low as 1.92-9/10 around here.
On the other, the shale companies can all go out of business and I won't feel bad at all. Our State is already trying really hard to pump up the whole renewables economy, and a little extra incentive to do so would be very welcome.

--Patrick
 
I don't know anything about the business of oil, so I don't understand how the prices drops so much in such a short span. What causes it, anyway? In the laymenest of terms possible, please. I've never understood oil prices.
 
I don't know anything about the business of oil, so I don't understand how the prices drops so much in such a short span. What causes it, anyway? In the laymenest of terms possible, please. I've never understood oil prices.
Supply and demand, really. The Middle East has some of the "best" oil (requires the least amount of processing), so it's the most desirable on the world market. Prices are usually high because OPEC, etc. set a quota on the amount of oil they extract, and they adjust this quota up and down in line with demand in order to basically "dial in" their preferred amount of profit. Right now, they have decided to keep production of their market-preferred product high enough that it is more attractive to buyers, presumably because they have some kind of beef with other oil producers (nobody seriously believes they are doing it out of generosity). Simultaneously, producers of less desirable oil (Venezuela's oil is full of sulfur, shale oil is significantly more expensive to extract, etc.) have had to decrease their selling price in order to remain attractive and in order to continue to sell enough volume to make ends meet. This oversupply has caused the price per barrel to drop, and the oil companies have dropped their pump prices in response because game theory/equilibrium price--oil companies usually only make a penny or two profit per gallon sold, and they set their gas prices based on how expensive they predict it will be in the future to manufacture gasoline.

I only know from 6yrs in oil retail and news reports, so if any of our more petro-connected people want to weigh in, that would be great.

--Patrick
 
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GasBandit

Staff member
I don't know anything about the business of oil, so I don't understand how the prices drops so much in such a short span. What causes it, anyway? In the laymenest of terms possible, please. I've never understood oil prices.
The biggest factor is production vs consumption, which is just supply and demand on a massive scale. The world at large consumes (I think, I might be misremembering last sunday's Money Talk where they talked about this) about 93.5 million barrels of oil per day. Right now, the world's oil producers are producing roughly 94.5 million barrels of oil per day. That doesn't sound like a big difference, but when you consider that it means the world is producing a million barrels of oil (159 million liters) per day more than it is consuming, that stacks up fast. As supply builds up, prices go down. As producers (such as OPEC) decide to strategically reduce production, that supply dwindles, and the price of oil goes up.

One of the big impetuses behind the increase in oil production has been the US's new useage of hydraulic fracturing (aka "fracking") and horizontal drilling, which has opened up new sources of oil that weren't previously producing. We're now producing petroleum (and natural gas) at a level not seen since the 70s - almost double what we were around 2007ish. Fracking is only really profitable because the price of oil had been so high - it's a lot more costly a method to get the oil than conventional drilling and pumping. Saudi Arabia has also increased production, and OPEC has decided not to decrease production, so the price of oil has fallen drastically as supplies increase - especially since the US is the biggest consumer of oil at 18.5 million barrels per day (even china only consumes about 10 mil/day). If we're producing more of our own oil, we're buying less (but still buying lots) from abroad. Demand eases, supplies increase, prices go down.... and while OPEC's profits also go down, they are eyeing the long term.

Russia's economy has been faltering for a long time. It has never been great since the soviet collapse to begin with, but it's been hampered further recently by sanctions imposed for its shenanigans (such as the clandestine de facto invasion of Ukraine). The major mover and shaker in the Russian economy is their big oil company, Gazprom. Falling oil prices hurt Gazprom, which hurts the Russian economy. It also makes the US's oil producers who use fracking not able to turn a profit. I forget the exact figure, but I think the price of oil has to be something like $80 or $90 per barrel for fracking to show a profit - and lately it's been fluttering around in the mid 50s, with Saudi Arabia saying they want to push it as low as $40. Their hope is they can starve their competition out of business, weather the storm in the short term on their savings, and then things will go back to the "good old days" where they sat in the catbird seat.
 

GasBandit

Staff member
Won't that hurt corn prices though?
Food is the only thing that hasn't gone down in price lately. It could use a little "hurting" if you ask me, and as I'm guessing Dave's most visible bugetary price fluctuations are at the grocery store and the gas pump, I'm guessing he'll agree.
 
I assume that it may depress the corn business, but consumers should be happy with their lower corn prices.
If anything, it will show the inherent silliness of growing corn for the sole purpose of converting it into fuel (as a substitute for oil), or for the mandating of a minimum amount of corn which must be converted into fuel.

--Patrick
Nothing can depress the corn business because of it's massive subsidies and the universal need for ethanol, feed, and HFCS. What lower gas prices will actually affect is anything that needs to be shipped a long ways and anything that needs to be refrigerated. So meat, fish, dairy, certain produce... it should all be going down in price, but it's not quite there yet.
 

Necronic

Staff member
My main point was about ethanol. As oil prices drop ethanol becomes less and less feasible as an alternative. On that same note:

On the other, the shale companies can all go out of business and I won't feel bad at all. Our State is already trying really hard to pump up the whole renewables economy, and a little extra incentive to do so would be very welcome.

--Patrick

This whole thing actually extremely disincentives alternative energy exploration. They will have to compete at these much lower price points and short of increased subsidies they have no associated elasticity in their pricing.
 
My main point was about ethanol. As oil prices drop ethanol becomes less and less feasible as an alternative. On that same note:
Ethanol is used for a lot of things other than as a whole-gas alternative or as a gas additive... but even so, American gas uses ethanol to reduce emissions via federal guidelines so it's not going anywhere any time soon.
 
Right, but in the name of "progress," some of our politicians were mandating (or trying to introduce a mandate that said) that a certain minimum percentage of the nation's fuel must be supplied by ethanol, which will come back to bite us in the butt if it means The Nation is later being legally compelled to support a more expensive fuel alternative just to comply with those minimums.
True enough... the market loses interest in unicorn farts when Oil's under $60/bbl.
...which is a shame, because when oil is cheap would be the perfect time to get all of the stuff that most depends on oil out of the way and done before the price goes back up again.

--Patrick
 
It's not so much that ethanol is more expensive (ethanol is cheaper than gasoline per volume) than it is that it's much less efficient (it gives less mpg by volume), which means you need to fill up more often in normal vehicles and that some work vehicles aren't getting as much power. Part of this, however, is also because we haven't spent much time making powerful, efficient ethanol engines.

This is part of why we usually mix it with gas instead of just use it completely.
 
Yes, ethanol has a lower energy density than gasoline. I have some old books about converting your car to run on ethanol (and when I say old, I mean old enough to tell you how to calculate how much weight to add to the float in your carburetor to offset the physical density change), and even they say your MPG will go down on ethanol. The idea was that it would become cheaper over time to switch everyone over to ethanol since gas prices were just going to go up and up forever. These people ended up just like the folks who thought the stock market would go up forever. I just wish that more people would realize that ethanol isn't the final solution...that is, we're ultimately not just going to convert all the gas stations into ethanol stations filled by ethanol tankers on their way back from the ethanol refineries. Ethanol is only supposed to be the thing that "gets us by" by letting us continue to use our current transportation infrastructure until we can finally transition everything over to some form of electric.

Yes, really. I may be looking too far ahead, the amount of inertia may still be too great for it to happen in my lifetime. But it's entirely possible.

--Patrick
 
Yes, ethanol has a lower energy density than gasoline. I have some old books about converting your car to run on ethanol (and when I say old, I mean old enough to tell you how to calculate how much weight to add to the float in your carburetor to offset the physical density change), and even they say your MPG will go down on ethanol. The idea was that it would become cheaper over time to switch everyone over to ethanol since gas prices were just going to go up and up forever. These people ended up just like the folks who thought the stock market would go up forever. I just wish that more people would realize that ethanol isn't the final solution...that is, we're ultimately not just going to convert all the gas stations into ethanol stations filled by ethanol tankers on their way back from the ethanol refineries. Ethanol is only supposed to be the thing that "gets us by" by letting us continue to use our current transportation infrastructure until we can finally transition everything over to some form of electric.

Yes, really. I may be looking too far ahead, the amount of inertia may still be too great for it to happen in my lifetime. But it's entirely possible.

--Patrick
The thing is, some countries do just fine with ethanol. Brazil uses a ton of it's sugar cane to make the stuff and most cars are ether flexi-fuel (can take both gas or ethanol) or just straight ethanol. It CAN work, but your country has to be committed to the change and the US simply has access to too much cheap oil, so there isn't a huge reason to make the switch... and by the time we'd have to, electric may be ready to take over.

Electric cars are a sure bet for overtaking gas, eventually (15-30 years). We just need that next big battery breakthrough to make it happen.
 

Dave

Staff member
Actually, the logic is that lower gas prices hurt the stocks of gas/oil companies, which in turn hurts the investments for people's retirement.

But as I told my wife, when the stock market is booming and the gas/oil companies are seeing huge profits, I see nothing. So now it's my turn.
 
I've heard that, and it's an interesting thought. Not really sure what the Saudis have to gain from hurting Russia though, I think they have way more to gain by hurting US shale oil development and hurting alternative energy development, which this does. Which is also why I have a hard believing the US is behind this.

My belief is that this is the Saudis fighting a war of attrition against the world to show that they are still relevant even though US production has exploded so fiercely. And it's working.

I thought this was primarily why the Saudis dropped oil prices. Prices got so high that shale was totally profitable and economically feasible. Can't have none of that now.[DOUBLEPOST=1419518366,1419518071][/DOUBLEPOST]
Aren't you in North Dakota though? You guys may feel this harder than anyone in the country.

I know PA might, then again Corbett was pretty much giving away fracking gas so it might not affect us that much either.[DOUBLEPOST=1419518499][/DOUBLEPOST]
Yes, ethanol has a lower energy density than gasoline. I have some old books about converting your car to run on ethanol (and when I say old, I mean old enough to tell you how to calculate how much weight to add to the float in your carburetor to offset the physical density change), and even they say your MPG will go down on ethanol. The idea was that it would become cheaper over time to switch everyone over to ethanol since gas prices were just going to go up and up forever. These people ended up just like the folks who thought the stock market would go up forever. I just wish that more people would realize that ethanol isn't the final solution...that is, we're ultimately not just going to convert all the gas stations into ethanol stations filled by ethanol tankers on their way back from the ethanol refineries. Ethanol is only supposed to be the thing that "gets us by" by letting us continue to use our current transportation infrastructure until we can finally transition everything over to some form of electric.

Yes, really. I may be looking too far ahead, the amount of inertia may still be too great for it to happen in my lifetime. But it's entirely possible.

--Patrick
 
Actually, the logic is that lower gas prices hurt the stocks of gas/oil companies, which in turn hurts the investments for people's retirement.

But as I told my wife, when the stock market is booming and the gas/oil companies are seeing huge profits, I see nothing. So now it's my turn.
Yeah, Dad's been a little pissed because he's been losing money since CIBC (bank he worked for years with and has a bunch of stocks in) their shares have been hurting as a result of all this. But he also can't complain that gas prices are low, too. It's a win/lose situation.
 
Actually, the logic is that lower gas prices hurt the stocks of gas/oil companies, which in turn hurts the investments for people's retirement.

But as I told my wife, when the stock market is booming and the gas/oil companies are seeing huge profits, I see nothing. So now it's my turn.
One type of investment does not an economy make.

Look our entire economy was founded on having plentiful and cheap oil. We as Americans have based literally our entire foreign policy around insuring the free movement of crude oil. Cuddling up to Saudi Arabia, attempting a coup in Venezula, to an extent this recent thing with Cuba. Half of the cold war was securing oil for our use and to deny it to the Soviets. Do you think America has any reason beyond securing the movement of oil to always have a carrier group operating near the Suez canal and the Sea of Arabia.

We sure as shit don't do it to hurt our economy. We do it cause our economy thrives when oil is cheap.
 
FWIW, I won't be sorry to see tar sands extraction (as an industry) die the death of a thousand screams, either.
When you see people losing their jobs, and/or are out on the streets because of that, then will you still say that it's good? It employs 10,000s (if not more) people.

That's the problem with wishing ill on an industry: you hurt the little guy FIRST, not last.


I'm fine because of this, but I know many people who will not be if it continues.
 
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