2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine

Do the nukes even still work, or are they glorified low-yield dirty bombs at this point, I wonder.
This is essentially where NATO is right now. There is essentially no reason to believe that the Russian nuclear stockpile is nearly as massive or functional as previously thought if they were willing to rob their own standing army of it's means to do it's job. In fact, it's basically a sure bet that ALL of the Russian "state of the art" technology they have is only for show... one offs made for the press. We certainly know this is true in regards to their Air Force: there 16 SU-57s in the entirety of the country and 10 of them are hanger queens. If it came to it, it's highly probably that Russia could not defend itself from a conventional attack from NATO forces.

However... they really only NEED one nuclear weapon to deter NATO and the idea that they kept one or even a handful of such weapons active and trained on NATO countries is very feasible. As such, it doesn't really matter how big the arsenal is: if they have anything, it's enough to deter such a scenario purely for humanitarian reasons.
It's going to be an interesting moment when Russia loses Kherson and Melitopol and suddenly has to decide if Sevastopol (and Crimea in general) is worth defending JUST to keep NATO out of the Black Sea, because Ukraine is joining as soon as the fighting stops.
Unless that’s a new thing, that happened a few days ago and they’ve been imprisoned for the most part. But it still seems like a big step that they felt like they could say it.
Unless that’s a new thing, that happened a few days ago and they’ve been imprisoned for the most part. But it still seems like a big step that they felt like they could say it.
A week ago, Dmitry Palyuga was temporarily imprisoned (and then released) for calling for Putin to be tried for treason. This appears to be new and much larger with nearly 100 signatories.

The Russian are mining copium at a pretty intense rate right now, especially after photos of Zelensky touring Izyum came out.

Russia is calling for a partial mobilization, which in itself isn't all that dramatic, but it does combine with the sudden, urgent "vote" in the occupied regions as to if they want to join the Russian Federation or not.
Obviously, all four areas WILL vote to join Russia, and once that's done, Russia will proclaim all four parts of the Russian Federation and thus, any Ukrainian troops on their territory to be an offensive, targeting Russian soil. Which, in case anyone has forgotten, is their supposed red line to use nukes.
The wording of the statements is very deliberately chosen - the mobilization is to protect the motherland and its territorial integrity. Yeah, not great.
Well, duh. After sending in untrained cadets, barely trained prisoners, police and firemen, and failed recruitment drives, a "partial" mobilization of retired reservists and peasant boys (all students are exempted, but men between 18 and 25 have to go...Let's make sure our soldiers are all illiterate farmers from Siberia, they don't know any better!) is really the next step in Russian "cannon meat" tactics. Small numbers of elite troops (that have been failing spectacularly so far this time around) combined with large masses of meat for the grinder has always been their strategy. But nobody wants to be the ground beef.
Sending in the people of fighting age also means they aren't at home to... you know... revolt.
Yeah, but it also means you are providing those same people with weapons and (at least a little bit of) training. Anyone who survives is still going to be pissed, but also much more capable of revolting.

It’s very short-sighted, is what I’m saying.
There is a rumour going around on the net that Putin ordered that those who get arrested at anti war protests getting forcefully drafted and send to the front.
Ah yes. It seems the "300.000 soldiers" was more or less just for the Western market. Local potentates and governors are being handed quota to meet, and nobody higher up cares how or who they send. Very old fashioned Soviet style, really. Minorities and poor mining/logging towns in the East are seeing general mobilization orders, prisons are being stripped of everyone capable of holding a gun.
That's going to be one high-morale high-quality army they've got there!
Hey now, don't go knocking those results of Russian-Belgian cooperation! Back then we knew what we were doing! Those guns were great against...errr.....the Congolese rebels in 1905....and they served us well in WWI against the Germans!

(okay, those were other Nagant guns, but I'm just making fun of them anyway)