Rant VIII: The Reckoning

A "sound correlation", at least to me, would indicate that while there isn't a direct correlation, the correlation coefficient between two subsets X and Y is greater than .5 and that no other variables have as great of a correlation coefficient between the two subsets.

For example, there is a "sound correlation" between wins and runs scored in major league baseball. The actual correlation coefficient, on a team-by-team, year-by-year basis, is .68. It isn't a "perfect" correlation (+/- 1.00), but it is "sound" in that there are few other statistics that would have that level of correlation.
 
A "sound correlation", at least to me, would indicate that while there isn't a direct correlation, the correlation coefficient between two subsets X and Y is greater than .5 and that no other variables have as great of a correlation coefficient between the two subsets.

For example, there is a "sound correlation" between wins and runs scored in major league baseball. The actual correlation coefficient, on a team-by-team, year-by-year basis, is .68. It isn't a "perfect" correlation (+/- 1.00), but it is "sound" in that there are few other statistics that would have that level of correlation.
You can have very real correlations with coefficients well under .5, as long as you have a sizable sample.
 
Well, my folks arrived today from Halifax with a car load of banana boxes (my ideal boxes for my books and especially comics). My two bookcases of graphic novels are now packed up.

It's all starting to hit me that I'm moving Monday. *sigh* I know it's necessary but cripes, it still feels like another defeat for me.
 
For example, there is a "sound correlation" between wins and runs scored in major league baseball. The actual correlation coefficient, on a team-by-team, year-by-year basis, is .68. It isn't a "perfect" correlation (+/- 1.00), but it is "sound" in that there are few other statistics that would have that level of correlation.
I thought that it was a strong correlation. Or am I terribly confused? I've only had one stats and one research class so far, so I'm really interested to know if I'm wrong - regardless of this discussion I've been having.

- no other variables can possibly serve as a cause for y.

As to why people have trouble with it: There are several reasons, but mainly people are usually fixated an a believable cause/effect relationship and do not seek to discredit that.
This is the problem I am running into. There could be other causes for y (which are a variety of ailments instead of a single one). The people I am arguing with insist it has to be x because they say there is a sound correlation based on their own observations and pseudoscience rather than anything real science has offered up. It's frustrating to say the least.
 
I thought that it was a strong correlation. Or am I terribly confused? I've only had one stats and one research class so far, so I'm really interested to know if I'm wrong - regardless of this discussion I've been having.
I teach statistics and methods courses for psychology. An effect size (such as r-squared) identifies the size or strength of the relationship in a correlation. This is (supposed to be) independent of the correlation coefficient (r), which tells us how likely it is that a real correlation actually exists (instead of one we've obtained at random). A "sound" correlation is one that is likely, but may be big or small. You could find, for example, a very small relationship between eating m&ms and skin cancer if you examined billions of people in your study. You'd be pretty sure it is a real relationship (it beats out chance levels) but it isn't a strong one at all. So "sound" means "fairly certain" and "strong" means "large effect".
 
Made it to Halifax in one piece. Now the unpacking begins. Then job-hunting, acclimating to a new city (to say nothing of living with my parents again), and new self-discoveries. For now, unpacking.

Some good news, at least. The guy that moved us was also the owner of the small moving business. He told me to call him in a week or two to be one of his drivers. About $15/hour. We'll see how that goes. It'd be good money for now, at least.
 
My dog is close to the end, but he won't give up. Every time I think he's done for, he makes a come back. I'm not complaining, I love him and love having him around. It's just that his weight is down way too far. He needs to eat better, but won't. When I decide it's probably time, he starts eating again. I can't give up on him. He never did on me.
It's done. He got a bit better, then a lot worse. Even the people at the vet office were tearing up, we've been there a lot. I could see the vet was even having a hard time, and I'm sure he sees this a lot.
I keep hearing things in this house and think it's him, or thinking I should let him out. The worst is not having him there when I open the door.
 
I was ok until I tried to go to sleep. I saw a message from my mom that my nephew has called her twice crying. Along with my fiancees daughter crying. I want him back. I should have tried more.
 
I was ok until I tried to go to sleep. I saw a message from my mom that my nephew has called her twice crying. Along with my fiancees daughter crying. I want him back. I should have tried more.
It's hard, but I'm sure you did what was best for your buddy.
 
My parents recently put their dog down, and my dad had to take a week off of work to deal with it. It's rough. :(
 

GasBandit

Staff member
I'm really not trying to sound like I'm one-upping here, just trying to commisserate - but when I was in college, I had a dog that died very suddenly on me. I'd spent about $1500 on surgery for the poor thing (which was like a year's food budget), she was part chow so she had to have a face lift when her eyelids wouldn't stop turning in on themselves, and then she suffered a horrific vaginal prolapse... and 6 months after all that got fixed, I just woke to find her dead one morning.

And because at the time I didn't know what else to do, I called in to work, bailed on classes that day, and spent the day digging a chow-sized grave in the vegetable garden, then went to Lowes, bought wood, white and black paint and stencils and made the best grave marker I could.

In the past few months I've often reflected on what now seems to be a pattern to me. My mother commited suicide out of the blue one day when I was 14. The dog that was mine and mine alone when I was in college (as opposed to the family dogs that stayed with my folks when I left, or the dogs we had later after this) was the above one, and now Pauline - though that took a few months it still felt sudden as all hell.

It's really made some serious adjustments in my perspective on how short our time is, and how important it is to be unreserved with your loved ones. Because the capricious nature of fate can take them from you in the blink of an eye before you even know what's happening.
 
its something my dad told me GB, life is short, shit happens, and the little things that seem annoying and whatnot seem so much more important later. My mom groaned that she had to take my grandmother(her mom) to the doctor, and then considered that we have no idea how much longer my grandparents will be alive. I do shit for my folks with the same idea in the back of my mind. Its crazy I know, but it is the thing that keeps me sane.
 

GasBandit

Staff member
its something my dad told me GB, life is short, shit happens, and the little things that seem annoying and whatnot seem so much more important later. My mom groaned that she had to take my grandmother(her mom) to the doctor, and then considered that we have no idea how much longer my grandparents will be alive. I do shit for my folks with the same idea in the back of my mind. Its crazy I know, but it is the thing that keeps me sane.
Indeed. It's one thing to be told "life is short." It's another thing to have it branded on your psyche with a hot iron.
 
sorry, that probably sounded condescending, I was just trying to commiserate with you. I had similar experiences. Brofist for solidarity.
 
Ahem.

I still have another funeral to go to, after today's.

Oh, and the 5th is one year since I had to put my orange ball of fur down.

If this was twitter, the hashtag would be #bummerville.
 
Made it to Halifax in one piece. Now the unpacking begins. Then job-hunting, acclimating to a new city (to say nothing of living with my parents again), and new self-discoveries. For now, unpacking.

Some good news, at least. The guy that moved us was also the owner of the small moving business. He told me to call him in a week or two to be one of his drivers. About $15/hour. We'll see how that goes. It'd be good money for now, at least.
What moving company? That's a pretty sweet wage for no experience in this city.
 

Cajungal

Staff member
This isn't a horrible problem or tragedy, but it is a rant. So here goes:

You can totally tell which students came from schools that spend too much time training them for standardized tests. They don't care if they understand their answer at all, and they're afraid to go out on a limb.

We did a lab this week followed by a brief discussion and lecture explaining how it worked. After this type of lesson, they do an assessment to show that they can explain it in their own words. It's either written or verbal, depending on their skills. Some of my kids are still in the reading learning center and can barely write their own names, so we have a one-on-one meeting.

Not two seconds after the assessment was handed out and I sat with one of my LD students, a girl's hand shot up. She's not dumb; she's needy. And she's tentative. "I'm confused!" I hear it every day. She won't even try. When we're still in the lesson, she'll answer questions and ask really good follow-up questions. Independent work? Nope. Too scared to try it without a lifeline.

Another reason this happens is how kids (and their parents) define intelligence and learning. Every year I get kids who have obviously been pumped full of scientific facts in preparation for out-of-homeroom science class. It doesn't matter that you can recite what your parents told you if you can't make predictions based on what you know! The lazier gifted kids are satisfied with just having their information bank, because their parents treat them like little glowing oracles of knowledge. Ask them to predict what will happen if we remove all decomposers from an ecosystem? They've got nothin. NOTHING. The kids who think they're only average can do that because they're way more willing to learn.

Never never never spend too much time telling your kid that they're smart. 95% of the time, they don't know what to do with that compliment. They think it means "I'm done," and they'll avoid anything that might expose their ignorance of something. (Understandable ignorance, because they're fucking 9!) 9 times out of 10, the kid who gets praise for taking initiative, working hard, and being curious will work harder than one who get a parade every time they recite the periodic table.

I made a fool of myself this week. I literally dropped to my knees and said "HAVE NO FEAR! YOU LITERALLY HAVE NOTHING TO LOSE IN THIS CLASSROOM! I AM NOT ALLOWED TO FAIL YOU FOR USING YOUR BRAIN!" The good news is it might have gotten through to some of them. Humor is good in the classroom.
 
It's amazing how much of that applies to undergrads
And graduate students.
because actual legitimate research is fuck all hard in science. I was one of SIX people who graduated from a freshman class of 50 in my major. People are unwilling or unable to actually think critically about the shit around them. Knowing stuff helps, but you have to use knowledge like a box of tools to plumb the darkness. This is legit what I got beat into my head by my adviser.
 
Have you ever had to deal with a utility company that's allergic to collecting money? It's a giant pain in the ass. I swear my water company is allergic to accepting payments. They don't accept payments over the phone, they don't accept checks at their office (only money orders), and they have an online payment system that they don't administer themselves, so they can't help you with the system if they - say, just for shits and giggles - can't tell you what last name they put on your account. So, when you sign up for service, you have to meet with them in their office so they can explain to you in person in their nice quiet little waiting area on their nice not-too-comfy little furniture that the best way for you to pay your bill is online because they're really trying to take advantage of the current technologies. You go to their website, you print off the application form (yes... print it off and fill it out), and take it to their office with valid photo ID. If you're married, both spouses have to go, with both valid photo IDs. You cannot fax the form, you cannot fill the form out online, you cannot submit the form electronically in any way, because you have to show valid state or US military ID. Once you're at their office, and you've provided them with your valid ID and your SSN, and your address, and your previous address, and your nearest relatives' (they need 3) names, phone numbers, and addresses they have to go back to one of their 3 desks (big company, 3 whole office employees) and they allegedly look up your information and decide how much of a deposit they're going to charge you (it's $60 for everyone, according to their website), then they come out and the sit down across from you and explain what water service is and how you'll be billed, and how much time you have to pay your bill, and such, and then they send you on your way and send someone to your address within 24 hours to turn on your water service (which really just means to put it in your name, or something, because it's always on).

While they're explaining how cutting edge their technology is, they fail to mention that you cannot call them to make a payment. They cannot take a payment over the phone because they have no way to key a credit/debit card into the system or enter electronic check info. They also fail to tell you that they're not the administrators of their own payment system, some 3rd party that's not affiliated with them in any way runs the damn thing, and they don't have any way to contact the utility other than to call them during their business hours. Normally, that wouldn't be an issue. Here's why it's an issue in this case. The name they put on my account is <Wife's Full Name>/<My Full Name>. When you go to pay your bill online you have to enter your account number and the last name on the account. Given a string that looks like First_Name1 Last_Name1 / First_Name2 Last_Name2, which one do you think is the last name on the account? I can say from experience that it is neither Last_Name 1, nor Last_Name2, or any combination of that string. And because the online payment company isn't affiliated with the utility, they can't tell me what the last name is on the account either. And when they call the utility, they're told that the utility can't provide them with that information because they're not affiliated with me. And when I call the utility, all they can tell me is that the account is in my wife's and my names.

So, this means, that the only two options I have for remitting payment to these complete and utter fucktards is:
1) Take a money order to their physical address - but not a check because they can't accept checks at their office, or
2) Don't pay my bill long enough that they come shut off my service, then call the office to have someone sent out to turn it back on and give the service tech a check.

Oh, and did I mention that this is all over a bill that I could pay using the spare change in my couch? The entirety of the (late) bill, including the $20.00 reconnection fee and the $60.00 deposit is under $100.00.

:mad:
 

GasBandit

Staff member
Man, my utilities company was easy as hell, slicker than snot on a doorknob. I went in one afternoon and within 15 minutes had automatic draft off my checking account set up. I've never had to bother with it since.
 
Yeah, my utility company seems to be happy to take my money. Only issue is its $5 to pay online, but I'm a 2 minute walk from their office so I just walk over there.
 
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